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Forecasting Sugarcane Yield of Tamilnadu Using ARIMA Models

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Abstract

This paper attempts forecasting the sugarcane area, production and productivity of Tamilnadu through fitting of univariate Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models. The data on sugarcane area, production and productivity collected from 1950–2007 has been used for present study. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is found suitable for sugarcane area and productivity. ARIMA (2, 1, 2) is found appropriate for modeling sugarcane production. The performances of models are validated by comparing with actual values. Using the models developed, forecast values for sugarcane area, production and productivity are developed for subsequent years.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to acknowledge Sugarcane Breeding Institute, Coimbatore, for their support rendered in conducting this study and making possible to bring out this article.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Statistics, Bharathiar University, Coimbatore, India

    K. K. Suresh & S. R. Krishna Priya

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  1. K. K. Suresh
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  2. S. R. Krishna Priya
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Correspondence to S. R. Krishna Priya.

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Suresh, K.K., Krishna Priya, S.R. Forecasting Sugarcane Yield of Tamilnadu Using ARIMA Models. Sugar Tech 13, 23–26 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12355-011-0071-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12355-011-0071-7

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