Abstract
This study focused on the seismic activities in the Philippines Islands and the adjacent areas where the inter- and intra-plate seismic sources are prevalent. To access this, the frequency-magnitude distribution model was employed with the completeness seismicity data. Then, the possible maximum magnitude, return period and probability of earthquake occurrence, including the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, were evaluated. The results indicated that eastern Taiwan is among the most seismic-prone areas. The most probable largest magnitude of earthquakes was estimated to be up to 8.0 Mw in a time period of 50 years, giving return periods of <1, 2–4, 5–20 and 20–40 years for earthquakes with a Mw of 5.0, 6.0, 7.0 and 8.0, respectively. Meanwhile, in the areas of Davao and eastern Manado, where the group of Halmahera, Philippines and Sangihe Double Subduction Zones are delineated (HSZ, PSZ and SSZ, respectively), maximum earthquakes of 6.8–7.1 Mw are possible in a 5–10 year period. For the northern Minahassa and eastern Sulu Trenches (MST and SLT), which were defined as medium hazard areas, the return periods were calculated at ~100–200 years for an earthquake magnitude of 7.0–8.0 Mw. According to the limits of the recorded earthquake events, the Palawan, Sulu Archipelago and Sulu Trenches (PWT, SAT and SLT, respectively) are classified as aseismic source zones. For earthquake forecasting, six locations along the Manila Trench (MLT), HSZ, PSZ and SAT are proposed as the areas that have a high probability of generating a major earthquake in the near future. Geographically, the most prospective areas are located near major cities, such as Taipei, Manila, Davao and Manado. Thus, there is a compelling need to develop effective mitigation strategies for both tsunami and earthquake hazards.
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Pailoplee, S., Boonchaluay, N. Earthquake activities in the Philippines Islands and the adjacent areas. Geosci J 20, 877–889 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12303-016-0017-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12303-016-0017-x