The EU in 2030: a long-term view of Europe in a changing world: keeping the values, changing the attitudes

Abstract

Predicting future scenarios in EU politics is an important exercise that allows policymakers to plan for future generations and scarce resources. The EU has commenced this work through the ESPAS report Global Trends 2030—Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World. This article surveys the challenges and opportunities identified in the report: the rise of a global middle class, the emergence of a multipolar world, the diffusion of power from the nation state to non-state actors, the paradoxical ‘less poverty but more new poor’ and growing pressure for as well as growing resistance to global governance. Europe’s future success will depend on its ability to address the challenges of prosperity, democracy, demography, fairness and security in the next 20 years. Europe must ‘keep the values, but change the attitude’, while re-evaluating the role of the state to create a more democratic EU that can act as a broker between world powers.