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Table 3 Initial List of Conditions

From: Militarization, factionalism and political transitions: an inquiry into the causes of state collapseMilitarisierung, Faktionalismus und politische Transitionen: Eine Analyse der Ursachen von Staatskollaps

Condition Values Description and coding rules Source
AID 0 = constant or rising int. milit. or financial aid
1 = cut-backs to financial or military aid are announced or carried out
Trend in ODA and military aid (military hardware, training, troops) over the last five years prior to collapse Qualitative research;
“ODA” and “AID” by Wejnert (2007)
FACTIONAL 0 = no factionalism
1 = factionalism
Based on variable PARCOMP from Polity IV dataset.
PARCOMP 0, 1, 2, 4, 5 = 0
PARCOMP 3 = 1
Polity IV or own coding in accordance with the coding rules of Polity IV (Marshall and Jaggers 2005)
GOV_REV 0 = rising or constant state revenues
1 = decline of state revenues
Total revenues: in the local currency as a percentage of the GDP at current prices in the local currency
Gov_rev: total revenue of the year (a) preceding the collapse divided by total revenues (b) three years before the collapse
0 = total revenues (year a)/total revenues (year b) ≥100%
1 = total revenues (year a)/total revenues (year b) <100%
Revenue data from Lucas and Richter (2012).
GDP data in the local currency from the United Nations National Accounts Main Aggregates Databasea
INCOME 0 = Income ≤5% of the global average
1 = Income >5% of the global average
GDP per capita/global average GDP per capita (both in US-$) United Nations—National Accounts Main Aggregates Database
LOCAL_POLITY 0 = other
1 = local precolonial/preimperial polity or polities
Local Polity has to cover a significant part of the current state territory but is not congruent with current state territory Qualitative research
MILIT 0 = relevant political actors are unarmed
1 = relevant political actors are armed
Armed: systematic armament in the form of militias, armed wings etc Qualitative research
REPRESSION 0 = no or low level of repression
1 = intermediate to high level of repression
Average of PTS data (both State Department and Amnesty International scores) for the three-year period prior to collapse
0 = PTS score 1–2 (no repression)
1 = PTS 3–5
Political Terror Scaleb; qualitative research
TRANSITION 0 = Collapse does not follow a transition period
1 = Collapse follows directly after a transition period
A transition is coded if the Polity Score of the preceding year
a) is coded as −88
b) changes at least 3 points compared to the previous year
Polity IV
UNOFF_MILITIA 0 = no informal militias under governmental control
1 = informal militias under governmental control
Informal militias are under control of the government but:
a. are not financed from the official budget
b. have no official mandate
c. have no uniform with state insignia
d. control is exercised by the president or close associates
Qualitative research; Pro-Government Militias Database (Carey et al. 2013)
  1. ahttp://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/Introduction.asp
  2. bhttp://www.politicalterrorscale.org/