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AID
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0 = constant or rising int. milit. or financial aid
1 = cut-backs to financial or military aid are announced or carried out
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Trend in ODA and military aid (military hardware, training, troops) over the last five years prior to collapse
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Qualitative research;
“ODA” and “AID” by Wejnert (2007)
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FACTIONAL
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0 = no factionalism
1 = factionalism
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Based on variable PARCOMP from Polity IV dataset.
PARCOMP 0, 1, 2, 4, 5 = 0
PARCOMP 3 = 1
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Polity IV or own coding in accordance with the coding rules of Polity IV (Marshall and Jaggers 2005)
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GOV_REV
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0 = rising or constant state revenues
1 = decline of state revenues
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Total revenues: in the local currency as a percentage of the GDP at current prices in the local currency
Gov_rev: total revenue of the year (a) preceding the collapse divided by total revenues (b) three years before the collapse
0 = total revenues (year a)/total revenues (year b) ≥100%
1 = total revenues (year a)/total revenues (year b) <100%
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Revenue data from Lucas and Richter (2012).
GDP data in the local currency from the United Nations National Accounts Main Aggregates Databasea
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INCOME
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0 = Income ≤5% of the global average
1 = Income >5% of the global average
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GDP per capita/global average GDP per capita (both in US-$)
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United Nations—National Accounts Main Aggregates Database
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LOCAL_POLITY
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0 = other
1 = local precolonial/preimperial polity or polities
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Local Polity has to cover a significant part of the current state territory but is not congruent with current state territory
|
Qualitative research
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MILIT
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0 = relevant political actors are unarmed
1 = relevant political actors are armed
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Armed: systematic armament in the form of militias, armed wings etc
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Qualitative research
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REPRESSION
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0 = no or low level of repression
1 = intermediate to high level of repression
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Average of PTS data (both State Department and Amnesty International scores) for the three-year period prior to collapse
0 = PTS score 1–2 (no repression)
1 = PTS 3–5
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Political Terror Scaleb; qualitative research
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TRANSITION
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0 = Collapse does not follow a transition period
1 = Collapse follows directly after a transition period
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A transition is coded if the Polity Score of the preceding year
a) is coded as −88
b) changes at least 3 points compared to the previous year
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Polity IV
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UNOFF_MILITIA
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0 = no informal militias under governmental control
1 = informal militias under governmental control
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Informal militias are under control of the government but:
a. are not financed from the official budget
b. have no official mandate
c. have no uniform with state insignia
d. control is exercised by the president or close associates
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Qualitative research; Pro-Government Militias Database (Carey et al. 2013)
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