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Eine Schwalbe macht noch keinen Frühling: Die arabischen Umbrüche in der politikwissenschaftlichen Literatur

  • Jannis GrimmEmail author
Literaturbericht

Zusammenfassung

Seit den Umbrüchen von 2011 ist der zuvor als stabil angenommene Arabische Raum zurück in den Fokus der Vergleichenden Regimeforschung gerückt, welche die Transformationsprozesse, die vielerorts Volksaufständen folgten, vorwiegend unter dem Gesichtspunkt von Demokratisierung betrachtet. Der Erkenntnisgewinn dieses Zugangs ist unter Regionalforschern allerdings umstritten, die auf die Multidirektionalität und -Dimensionalität der arabischen Umbrüche hinweisen, die von Land zu Land äußerst unterschiedlich verlaufen sind. Dies ist nicht nur eine Folge verschiedenartiger struktureller Dispositionen, etwa hinsichtlich Regimetypus oder der Organisation von Machtzugängen. Vielmehr ist die hohe Varianz unter den Transformationspfaden, die die arabischen Gesellschaften eingeschlagen haben, vor allem das Ergebnis von Machtkämpfen zwischen Protestakteuren, Regimeeliten und ihren Sicherheitsorganen. Neben den Aktivisten der Volksaufstände haben sich in den vergangenen vier Jahren besonders die nationalen Armeen, und islamistische Vereinigungen als Kernakteure in den Transformationsdynamiken erwiesen. Dieser Beitrag präsentiert einen Überblick über die relevante Forschungsliteratur, die seit dem Arabischen Frühling innovative Perspektiven auf diese vielschichtigen Wandlungsprozesse geliefert und zu ihrem besseren Verständnis beigetragen hat.

Schlüsselwörter

Arabischer Frühling Transition und Transformation Akteure im Transformationsprozess Autokratie Mobilisierung 

Abstract

The upheavals of 2011 have catapulted the Arab World—once thought to be exceptionally stable—back onto the agenda of regime studies. Democratization quickly moved to become the dominant paradigm for comparative research on the transformation processes that followed the popular uprisings in many countries of the region. The insights generated by such a perspective are however limited. Region experts emphasize that the Arab transformations have unfolded in a very multidirectional and multidimensional way. In fact, trajectories of change differ significantly over the region. This diversity cannot be attributed solely to the divergent structural dispositions of the countries in question, such as varying regime types or different ways of organizing access to power. Instead, recent publications stress that the high variance in the preliminary outcomes of the Arab transitions is primarily a result of the contingent power struggles between protest actors, regime elites and security forces that have played out differently from country to country. During the past 4 years, apart from the revolutionary activists, especially the national Arab armies and Islamist groups have crystallized as key actors in the transition dynamics. This article provides an overview of the relevant scholarly literature that offers innovative perspectives and contributes to a better understanding of the Arab Spring.

Keywords

Arab spring Transition and transformation Key actors in transition dynamics Authoritarianism Mobilization 

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Projekt „Elitenwandel und neue soziale Mobilisierung in der arabischen Welt“, Forschungsgruppe Naher/Mittlerer Osten und AfrikaStiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), German Institute for International and Security AffairsBerlinDeutschland

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