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Challenges and opportunities for carbon neutrality in China’s building sector—Modelling and data

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  • Building Thermal, Lighting, and Acoustics Modeling
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Abstract

The building sector is one of the largest energy user and carbon emitter globally. To achieve China’s national carbon target, the building sector in China needs to achieve carbon peaking and neutrality targets by 2030 and 2060, respectively. However, data deficiency on building energy and emissions become barriers for tracking the status of building energy and emissions, and identify potential opportunities for achieving dual carbon targets. To address these shortcomings, this study established an integrated China Building Energy and Emission Model (CBEEM). With CBEEM, this study evaluated the building-construction and building-operation energy and emissions in China, and revealed the status quo and potential challenge and opportunities. According to modelling results, building operation energy use of China was 1.06 billion tce in 2020, accounting for 21% of China’s total primary energy consumption. Building construction energy consumption was 0.52 billion tce in 2020, accounting for another 10% of total primary energy consumption. Key messages found on building carbon emissions are: building construction embodied emissions were 1.5 billion tCO2 in 2020 and are declining slowly, building operational carbon emissions were 2.2 billion tCO2 in 2020 and are still increasing. International comparisons between China and other countries on building stock, energy use intensity and carbon emission intensity were conducted as well, and help shed a light on the challenges for decarbonization of China’s building sector. Finally, technology perspectives to achieve carbon neutrality target were discussed and related policy suggestions were provided.

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Abbreviations

BERC:

Building Energy Research Center of Tsinghua University

CBCEM:

China Building Construction Energy Model

CBOEM:

China Building Operation Energy Model

CBEEM:

China Building Energy and Emission Model

CEM:

China Energy Model

CO2 :

carbon dioxide

CHP:

combined heat and power

DeST:

Designer’s Simulation Toolkit

DHW:

domestic hot water

LBNL:

Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

NDCs:

nationally determined contributions

NUH:

northern urban heating

GHG:

greenhouse gas

PC:

public and commercial buildings, excluding NUH

PEDF:

photovoltaic, energy storage, direct current, and flexibility

PV:

photovoltaic

RR:

rural residential building

UN:

United Nations

UR:

urban residential building, excluding NUH

cap:

capita

hh:

household

kgce:

kilogram of coal equivalent

PWh:

petawatt-hour, 1015 watt-hour

tce:

tonne of coal equivalent

TWh:

terawatt-hour, 1012 watt-hour

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Acknowledgements

This study was supported by the Youth Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51908311), Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 8222019), Huaneng Group Science and Technology Research Project (HNKJ20-H50) and Tsinghua-Foshan Innovation Special Fund (TFISF, No. 2021THFS0201).

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  1. Building Energy Research Center, School of Architecture, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

    Shan Hu, Yang Zhang, Ziyi Yang, Da Yan & Yi Jiang

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  1. Shan Hu
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  2. Yang Zhang
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Correspondence to Da Yan.

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Hu, S., Zhang, Y., Yang, Z. et al. Challenges and opportunities for carbon neutrality in China’s building sector—Modelling and data. Build. Simul. 15, 1899–1921 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12273-022-0912-1

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