The aim of this paper is to develop 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models for the contemporary Chinese populations based on the Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study (GBCS) and to compare its performance with models based on Framingham’s general cardiovascular risk profile and the Prediction for Atherosclerotic CVD Risk in China (China-PAR) project. Subjects were randomly classified into the training (n = 15,000) and validation (n = 12,721) sets. During an average of 12.0 years’ follow-up, 3,732 CVD events occurred. A 10-year sex-specific CVD risk prediction model including age, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, smoking, and diabetes was developed. Compared with the Framingham and China-PAR models, the GBCS model had a better discrimination in both women (c-statistic 0.72, 95% CI 0.71–0.73) and men (c-statistic 0.68, 95% CI 0.67–0.70), and the risk predicted was closer to the actual risk. This prediction model would be useful for identifying individuals at higher risks of CVD in contemporary Chinese populations.
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The datasets analyzed during the current study are not publicly available due to the protection of the privacy of the participants but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease
Coronary heart disease
Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study
Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China
Systolic blood pressure
Diastolic blood pressure
Body mass index
Area under curve
Receiver operating characteristic
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The Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study investigators include the following: Guangzhou Twelfth People’s Hospital, WS Zhang, M Cao, T Zhu, B Liu, and CQ Jiang (Co-PI); The University of Hong Kong, CM Schooling, SM McGhee, GM Leung, R Fielding, and TH Lam (Co-PI); and The University of Birmingham, P Adab, GN Thomas, and KK Cheng (Co-PI).
This work was funded by the Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81941019), the Major Infectious Disease Prevention and Control of the National Science and Technique Major Project (2018ZX10715004), the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFC0907100), the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong (2018A030313140), the Guangzhou Science and Technology Bureau (201704030132), and the University of Birmingham, UK.
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The Guangzhou Medical Ethics Committee of the Chinese Medical Association approved the study, and all participants gave written, informed consent before participation.
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Communicated by Associate Editor Junjie Xiao oversaw the review of this article.
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Huang, Y.Y., Tian, W.B., Jiang, C.Q. et al. A Simple Model for Predicting 10-Year Cardiovascular Risk in Middle-Aged to Older Chinese: Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study. J. of Cardiovasc. Trans. Res. (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12265-021-10163-3
- Cardiovascular disease
- Risk assessment
- Prediction model
- Primary prevention