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Predictive Models for Pulmonary Artery Size in Fontan Patients


We developed models of pulmonary artery (PA) size in Fontan patients as a function of age and body surface area (BSA) using linear regression and breakpoint analyses based on data from 43 Fontan patients divided into two groups: the extracardiac conduit (ECC) group (n = 24) and the non-ECC group (n = 19). Model predictions were compared against those of a non-Fontan control group (n = 18) and published literature. We observed strong positive correlations of the mean PA diameter with BSA (r = 0.9, p < 0.05) and age (r = 0.88, p < 0.05) in the ECC group. The absolute percentage differences between our BSA and age model predictions against published literature were less than 16% and 20%, respectively. Predicted PA size for Fontan patients was consistently smaller than the control group. These models may serve as useful references for clinicians and be utilized to construct 3D anatomic models that correspond to patient body size or age.

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Body surface area


Computational fluid dynamics


Extracardiac conduit


Magnetic resonance imaging


Pulmonary arteries


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We would like to thank the Department of Mechanical Engineering at Clemson University for their support.


This work was supported by an Award from the American Heart Association, The Children’s Heart Foundation, and the Department of Mechanical Engineering at Clemson University. J.P. Mynard is supported by a co-funded Career Development Fellowship from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and a Future Leader Fellowship from the National Heart Foundation. The Heart Research group at MCRI (J.P. Mynard) is supported by the Victorian Government’s Operational Infrastructure Support Program, Big W, and RCH1000.

Author information




A. Gupta contributed to the conception of this work, performed the statistical analyses and interpretation of the data, and drafted the manuscript. C. Gillett acquired data and revised the work critically for important intellectual content. P. Gerard contributed to the design of the study and performed critical revision for intellectual content. M.M.H. Cheung contributed to data acquisition and performed critical revision for intellectual content. J.P. Mynard contributed to the design of the study and performed critical revision for intellectual content. E. Kung contributed to the conception and design of the study and performed critical revision for intellectual content. All authors have approved the submitted version of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ethan Kung.

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The funding agencies/sponsors had no involvement in the study design; in the collection, analysis and interpretation of the data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the paper for publication.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Human Subjects/Informed Consent Statement

Informed consent was not necessary as the data did not contain any identifying information.

Institutional Review Board Approval

The Human Research Ethics Committee of the Royal Children’s Hospital Melbourne approved the retrospective use of data for this study (Ref. No: 37205A).

Animal Studies

No animal studies were carried out by the authors for this article.

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Gupta, A., Gillett, C., Gerard, P. et al. Predictive Models for Pulmonary Artery Size in Fontan Patients. J. of Cardiovasc. Trans. Res. 14, 782–789 (2021).

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  • Univentricular physiology
  • Regression analysis
  • Predictive models
  • Pulmonary artery index
  • Fontan geometry