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Application of Species Distribution Models to Identify Estuarine Hot Spots for Juvenile Nekton

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Abstract

Modeling the distribution and habitat capacities of key estuarine species can be used to identify hot spots, areas where species density is significantly higher than surrounding areas. This approach would be useful for establishing a baseline for evaluating future environmental scenarios across a landscape. We developed species distribution models for early juvenile life stages of brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus), white shrimp (Litopenaeus setiferus), blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), and spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus) in order to delineate the current coastal hot spots that provide the highest quality habitat conditions for these estuarine-dependent species in Louisiana. Response curves were developed from existing long-term fisheries-independent monitoring data to identify habitat suitability for fragmented marsh landscapes. Response curves were then integrated with spatially explicit input data to generate species distribution models for the coastal region of Louisiana. Using spatial autocorrelation metrics, we detected clusters of suitable habitat across the Louisiana coast, but only 1% of the areas were identified as true hot spots with the highest habitat quality for nekton. The regions identified as hot spots were productive fringing marsh habitats that are considered the most vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic impacts. The species distribution models identify the coastal habitats which currently provide the greatest capacity for key estuarine species and will be used in the Louisiana coastal planning process to evaluate how species distributions may change under various environmental and restoration scenarios.

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Acknowledgments

We thank the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries who collected and provided all fisheries-independent data used in the analysis. We also thank Harry Blanchet, Mandy Green, Lisa Landry, Brian Lezina, Leland Moss, and Denise Reed who contributed to the development of results and thinking presented here. Tim Carruthers provided helpful comments on an earlier draft that resulted in additional refinements and clarity in the final manuscript. We appreciated the constructive comments by the associate editor, Lawrence P. Rozas, and two anonymous reviewers. This work was funded in part by the Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority of Louisiana under Cooperative Endeavor Agreement Number 2503-12-58, Task Order No. 03

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. The Water Institute of the Gulf, 301 N. Main St, Baton Rouge, LA, 70825, USA

    Ann Commagere Hijuelos & Eric D. White

  2. Dynamic Solutions, 450 Laurel St., Baton Rouge, LA, 70801, USA

    Shaye E. Sable

  3. The University of New Orleans, 2000 Lakeshore Dr, New Orleans, LA, 70148, USA

    Ann M. O’Connell

  4. Department of Experimental Statistics, Louisiana State University, 161 M. D. Woodin Hall, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA

    James P. Geaghan

  5. Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority, 150 Terrace Ave, Baton Rouge, LA, 70802, USA

    David C. Lindquist

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  1. Ann Commagere Hijuelos
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Correspondence to Ann Commagere Hijuelos.

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Communicated by Lawrence P. Rozas

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Hijuelos, A.C., Sable, S.E., O’Connell, A.M. et al. Application of Species Distribution Models to Identify Estuarine Hot Spots for Juvenile Nekton. Estuaries and Coasts 40, 1183–1194 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-016-0199-5

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