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Modeling the Effects of a Power Plant Decommissioning on an Estuarine Food Web

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Abstract

While a number of studies have looked at the impingement and entrainment impacts of power generation facilities on recreationally and commercially important fish species, few have assessed the effects on forage species or the broader aquatic community. Here, we constructed a trophic-based ecosystem model for the Barnegat Bay, New Jersey estuary, which is home to the Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station. Utilizing this model, we developed two scenarios: a baseline scenario for 1981–2030 and a decommissioning scenario where the generating station substantially reduces its water withdrawals beginning in 2020. The effect on the biomass of an individual species tended to be small (<3 %), and the direction of the change varied by species. Trophic interactions played an important role in determining the overall change in a species’ biomass, as some species directly impacted by the generating station had a reduced biomass in the decommissioning scenario due to increased predation mortality. The differences in results between the static mixed trophic impact analysis and the dynamic simulation analysis highlight the value of dynamic modeling in assessing management strategies.

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Acknowledgments

This project was funded by a grant (2012–2015) to JMV and OPJ from the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection as part of the Governor’s Barnegat Bay Initiative. The authors would like to thank Jennifer Pincin for compiling the diet data and other parameter values and other researchers within the Barnegat Bay Initiative for graciously sharing data. The manuscript benefitted from helpful suggestions from three anonymous reviewers.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Barnegat Bay Partnership, PO Box 2001, Toms River, NJ, 08754-2001, USA

    James M. Vasslides

  2. Graduate Program in Ecology and Evolution, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Rd, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA

    James M. Vasslides

  3. NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office/Cooperative Oxford Laboratory, 904 South Morris Street, Oxford, MD, 2165, USA

    Howard Townsend

  4. Division of Science, Research, and Environmental Health, New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection, 428 East State Street, Trenton, NJ, 08625, USA

    Thomas Belton

  5. Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Rd, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA

    Olaf P. Jensen

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  1. James M. Vasslides
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  2. Howard Townsend
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  3. Thomas Belton
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  4. Olaf P. Jensen
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Correspondence to James M. Vasslides.

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Communicated by Dennis Swaney

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Vasslides, J.M., Townsend, H., Belton, T. et al. Modeling the Effects of a Power Plant Decommissioning on an Estuarine Food Web. Estuaries and Coasts 40, 604–616 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-016-0151-8

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