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Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and Its Application to Habitat Sustainability for Endangered Species in the San Francisco Estuary

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Abstract

Salt marsh faunas are constrained by specific habitat requirements for marsh elevation relative to sea level and tidal range. As sea level rises, changes in relative elevation of the marsh plain will have differing impacts on the availability of habitat for marsh obligate species. The Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) is a 1-D model of elevation that incorporates both biological and physical processes of vertical marsh accretion. Here, we use WARMER to evaluate changes in marsh surface elevation and the impact of these elevation changes on marsh habitat for specific species of concern. Model results were compared to elevation-based habitat criteria developed for marsh vegetation, the endangered California clapper rail (Rallus longirostris obsoletus), and the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris) to determine the response of marsh habitat for each species to predicted >1-m sea-level rise by 2100. Feedback between vertical accretion mechanisms and elevation reduced the effect of initial elevation in the modeled scenarios. Elevation decreased nonlinearly with larger changes in elevation during the latter half of the century when the rate of sea-level rise increased. Model scenarios indicated that changes in elevation will degrade habitat quality within salt marshes in the San Francisco Estuary, and degradation will accelerate in the latter half of the century as the rate of sea-level rise accelerates. A sensitivity analysis of the model results showed that inorganic sediment accumulation and the rate of sea-level rise had the greatest influence over salt marsh sustainability.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center and the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change Wildlife Science Center for providing financial support. Additional support was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey Priority Ecosystem Science Program and the Computational Assessments of Scenarios of Change for the Delta Ecosystem (CASCaDE II) project. CASCaDE II is supported by a grant from the Delta Science Program. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Delta Science Program. This is CASCaDE report #42. Kevin Buffington, Kyle Spragens, Christopher Fuller, and Evyan Borgnis provided valuable guidance and information for the development of this project. Glenn Guntenspergen, Donald Cahoon, Lisa-Marie Wyndham-Myers, and two anonymous referees provided thoughtful reviews that contributed to the improvement of the manuscript. We would like to thank the managers of the San Francisco Bay National Wildlife Refuges, East Bay Regional Parks, Department of Fish and Wildlife Napa-Sonoma Marshes, and China Camp State Park and National Estuarine Research Reserve for permission and logistical support. The use of trade names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply government endorsement.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. U.S. Geological Survey, California Water Science Center, 6000 J Street, Placer Hall, Sacramento, CA, 95819-6129, USA

    Kathleen M. Swanson, Judith Z. Drexler & David H. Schoellhamer

  2. U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, San Francisco Bay Estuary Field Station, 505 Azuar Drive, Vallejo, CA, 94592, USA

    Karen M. Thorne & John Y. Takekawa

  3. U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Dixon Field Station, 69924 Tremont Rd., Dixon, CA, 95620, USA

    Mike L. Casazza & Cory T. Overton

  4. University of San Francisco, Department of Environmental Science, 2130 Fulton St., San Francisco, CA, 94117, USA

    John C. Callaway

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  1. Kathleen M. Swanson
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  2. Judith Z. Drexler
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  3. David H. Schoellhamer
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Correspondence to Kathleen M. Swanson.

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Swanson, K.M., Drexler, J.Z., Schoellhamer, D.H. et al. Wetland Accretion Rate Model of Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER) and Its Application to Habitat Sustainability for Endangered Species in the San Francisco Estuary. Estuaries and Coasts 37, 476–492 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12237-013-9694-0

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