Skip to main content
Log in

Divisia decomposition method and its application to changes of net oil import intensity

  • Published:
Transactions of Tianjin University Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The existing oil import dependence index cannot exactly measure the economic cost or scales, and it is difficult to describe the economical aspect of oil security. To measure the foreign dependence of one country’s economy and reflect its oil economic security, this paper defines the net oil import intensity as the ratio of net oil import cost to GDP. By using Divisia Index Decomposition, the change of net oil import intensity in five industrialized countries and five newly industrialized countries during 1971–2010 is decomposed into five factors: oil price, oil intensity, oil self-sufficiency, domestic price level and exchange rate. The result shows that the dominating factors are oil price and oil intensity; moreover, the newly industrialized countries have higher net oil import intensity than industrialized countries.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Bacon R, Kojima M. Vulnerability to Oil Price Increases: A Decomposition Analysis of 161 Countries [R]. Working Paper, 48422. World Bank, Washington DC, USA, 2008.

    Google Scholar 

  2. Energy Sector Management Assistance Program. The Vulnerability of African Countries to Oil Price Shocks. Major Factors and Policy Options: The Case of Oil Importing Countries[R]. ESMAP Formal Report, 308/05. ESMAP, Washington DC, USA, 2005.

  3. Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre. A Quest for Energy Security in the 21st Century: Resources and Constraints[R]. APERC, Tokyo, Japan, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  4. Gupta E. Oil vulnerability index of oil-importing countries [J]. Energy Policy, 2008, 36(3): 1195–1211.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Bacon R, Kojima M. Oil price risks: Measuring the vulnerability of oil importers [J]. Viewpoint, 2008, 320: 1–4.

    Google Scholar 

  6. Kojima M. Vulnerability to Higher Oil Prices: Decomposition Analysis of 158 Countries Between 2003 and 2008 [R]. Working Paper. World Bank, Washington DC, USA, 2011.

    Google Scholar 

  7. Yepez-Garcia R A, Dana J. Mitigating Vulnerability to High and Volatile Oil Prices Power Sector Experience in Latin America and the Caribbean[R]. Working Paper, 69944. World Bank, Washington DC, USA, 2012.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  8. Liao H, Wang C, Zhu Z S et al. Structural decomposition analysis on energy intensity changes at regional level [J]. Transactions of Tianjin University, 2013, 19(4): 287–292.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Ang B W. Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy: Which is the preferred method? [J]. Energy Policy, 2004, 32(9): 1131–1139.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. IEA. Oil Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries 2007[EB/OL]. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/oil_security.pdf, 2007.

  11. Wei Y M, Liao H. China Energy Report (2010): Energy Efficiency Research [M]. Science Press, Beijing, China, 2010 (in Chinese).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Hamilton J D. Nonlinearities and the macroeconomic effects of oil prices [J]. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2011, 15(s3): 364–378.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. BP. BP Energy Outlook 2030[EB/OL]. http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/statistical-review/BP_World_Energy_Outlook_booklet_2013.pdf, 2013.

  14. Cabalu H, Manuhutu C. Vulnerability of natural gas supply in the Asian gas market[J]. Economic Analysis and Policy, 2009, 39(2): 255–270.

    Google Scholar 

  15. Wei Y M, Wu Gang, Liang Q M et al. China Energy Report (2012): Energy Security Research [M]. Science Press, Beijing, China, 2012 (in Chinese).

    Google Scholar 

  16. EIA. China Poised to Become the Worldfs Largest Net Oil Importer Later This Year[EB/OL]. http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id12471, 2013.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Hua Liao  (廖 华).

Additional information

Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71273027 and No. 71322306).

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Liao, H., Xu, Z. & Wang, C. Divisia decomposition method and its application to changes of net oil import intensity. Trans. Tianjin Univ. 20, 72–78 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12209-014-2306-7

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12209-014-2306-7

Keywords

Navigation