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Remaining useful life estimation using accelerated degradation test, a gamma process, and the arrhenius model for nuclear power plants

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Abstract

Predictive maintenance can be performed in nuclear power plants to prevent the failure of their components and equipment. Estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of the components and equipment is the most important step in a predictive maintenance strategy. In this study, we focus on the RUL estimation of bipolar junction transistors (BJTs). We propose a practical method that applies a gamma process and the Arrhenius model and uses experimental data obtained by performing accelerated degradation tests (ADTs) at high temperatures. Using OriginLab, we chose the most suitable model as the degradation model. We calculated the parameter values of the proposed model using the gamma process and Arrhenius model. We estimated the RULs of BJTs using the proposed method.

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Abbreviations

B :

Base

C :

Collector

E :

Emitter

β F :

The common-emitter current gain

\({\hat \beta _F}\) :

Normalized values of βF

I C :

The ratio of the collector current

I B :

The base current

V :

Emitter voltage

β :

The scale parameter of the gamma process

α :

The shape parameter of the gamma process

λ(t):

The shape function of the gamma process

k :

The rate constant of the Arrhenius model

T :

The temperature in Kelvin of the Arrhenius model

A :

The pre-exponential facto of the Arrhenius model

E a :

The activation energy of the Arrhenius model

R :

The universal gas constant of the Arrhenius model

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported by the National Research Foundation (NRF-2020R1A2C1004544) grant by the Korean government (MSIT); and the Institute for Information and Communications Technology Promotion (IITP-2021000292) grant funded by the Korean government (MSIT).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Engineering Research Institute, Ajou University, Suwon, 16499, Korea

    Minkoo Kang

  2. Department of Industrial Engineering, Ajou University, Suwon, 16499, Korea

    Sunjae Lee, Joongsoon Jang, Belachew Mekbibe Negatu & Sangchul Park

  3. Woojin-ntec. Inc., Hwasung, 18481, Korea

    Jong Ho Kim

  4. Korea Electronics Technology Institute, Seongnam, 13509, Korea

    Chan Sei Yoo

Authors
  1. Minkoo Kang
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sangchul Park.

Additional information

Minkoo Kang is post-doctoral researcher at Engineering Research Institute, Ajou University, Suwon, Korea. He received the Bachelor’s, Master’s, and Ph.D. degrees in industrial engineering from Ajou University, in 2007, 2009, and 2013, respectively. From 2015 to 2018, he was with Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway, as a visiting scholar. His research interests include scheduling, deep learning, and digital transformation.

Sunjae Lee is Master’s degree student in Department of Industrial Engineering, Ajou University, Suwon, Korea. He received Bachelor’s degree in industrial engineering from Ajou University. His research interests include prognostic and health management, and estimation of remaining useful life.

Jong-Ho Kim is the Head of the Technology Research Institute at Woojin-Ntec Co., Ltd. and is responsible for providing solutions to measurement and control equipment and radiation measurement equipment for nuclear power plants. He studied physics at Myongji University, earning Master’s degree in nuclear physics and Ph.D. degree in nuclear medicine physics.

Chan-Sei Yoo received the Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees in electrochemical engineering in 1996 and 1998, respectively and Ph.D. degree in electronic and electrical engineering in 2010 from Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea. In 1998, he joined the Electronic Convergence Materials & Device Research Center at Korea Electronics Technology Institute, Korea, where he was involved in the development of microwave chip component using LTCC technology such as chip inductor, chip capacitor, chip coupler and chip balun and so on. And then he has conducted research on the ceramic module like dual-band voltage controlled oscillator for GSM/DCS application, dual-band antenna switch module for GSM/DCS application, and dual-band power amplifiers for KPCS/WCDMA and GSM/WCDMA applications. His current research focuses the radar systems for mmWave application, the high power and high efficiency amplifiers including switch mode operation, and energy harvesting technology.

Joongsoon Jang is a professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at Ajou University, Suwon, Korea. He received the Bachelor’s degree in industrial engineering from Seoul National University, Seoul, Korea in 1979. He received the Master’s and Ph.D. degrees in industrial engineering from KAIST, Daejeon, Korea, in 1981, 1986, respectively. His research interests include reliability and quality management.

Belachew Mekbibe Negatu is a Ph.D. student at the Department of Industrial Engineering, AJOU University, Suwon, Korea. He received the Bachelor of Science Degree in Statistics & Mathematics and Master of Science Degree in Applied Statistics from Addis Ababa University, Ethiopia. He works as Lecturer at the Department of Applied Mathematics, Adama Science & Technology University, Ethiopia. His research interests include Reliability & Quality Engineering, Machine Learning, and Biostatistics.

Sangchul Park is a Professor in the Department of Industrial Engineering at Ajou University, Suwon, Korea. He received the Bachelor’s, Master’s, and Ph.D. degrees in industrial engineering from KAIST, Daejeon, Korea, in 1994, 1996, and 2000, respectively. Before joining Ajou University, he worked for DaimlerChrysler Corp., developing commercial and inhouse CAD/CAM software systems from 2001 to 2004. His research interests include quality management, simulation, and artificial intelligence.

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Kang, M., Lee, S., Kim, J.H. et al. Remaining useful life estimation using accelerated degradation test, a gamma process, and the arrhenius model for nuclear power plants. J Mech Sci Technol 36, 4905–4912 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12206-022-0904-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12206-022-0904-1

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