Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Motor Vehicles Forecasting in Kolhapur City Using Combined Grey Model

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Published:
KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering Aims and scope

Abstract

Kolhapur city has witnessed consistent growth in motor vehicles (MV), and an accurate forecast is essential. To this end, a combined grey model was developed by combining the grey model (GM(1,1)) and the simple linear regression (SLR) model. The new model, named the grey simple linear regression model (abbreviated as GSLRM), is newly utilised for MV prediction. A total of five years (2008–2012) of MV data were employed. The accuracy of the proposed GSLRM was compared with the GM(1,1) and SLR models in terms of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results revealed that all models meet high accuracy (MAPE < 10%). However, the GSLRM was slightly more accurate (MAPE = 3.85%) than the competing models. Moreover, with a reasonable development coefficient value (a ≤ 0.3), the GSLRM could be used for mid-long-term forecasts. Subsequently, the GSLRM was used to forecast MV for the next seven years (2013–2019). The forecast results showed that the total MV would increase continuously. In summary, the GSLRM proved its reliability and validity in forecasting the total MV in Kolhapur city, and it can assist the government in drafting relevant policies. Moreover, this study also attempted to investigate the relationship between the population and RMV growth and found that population could be one of the responsible factors.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Agyemang B, Abledu GK, emevoh R (2013) Road traffic accidents and population growth in Ghana. International Journal of Business and Social Research (IJBSR) 3(10):41–47, DOI: https://doi.org/10.18533/ijbsr.v3i10.290

    Google Scholar 

  • Burgan HI, Aksoy H (2022) Daily flow duration curve model for ungauged intermittent subbasins of gauged rivers. Journal of Hydrology 604: 127249, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.127249

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dang HS, Huang YF, Wang CN, Nguyen TMT (2016) An application of the short-term forecasting with limited data in the healthcare traveling industry. Sustainability 8(10):1037, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su8101037

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deng JL (1982) Control problems of grey systems. Systems & Control Letters 1(5):288–294, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6911(82)80025-X

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Deng J (1989) Introduction to grey system theory. The Journal of Grey System 1:1–24, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5555/90757.90758

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Directorate of Census Operations Maharashtra (2014) District census handbook Kolhapur, village and town directory. Census of India 2011, Maharashtra, Series-28, Part XII–A, Government of India

  • Directorate of Economics & Statistics (DES) (2012) Economic survey of Maharashtra 2011–12. Planning Department, Government of Maharashtra, Mumbai

    Google Scholar 

  • Directorate of Economics & Statistics (DES) (2016) District domestic product of Maharashtra 2004–05 to 2013–14 (Base Year 2004–05). Planning Department, Government of Maharashtra, Mumbai

    Google Scholar 

  • Gidde MR, Sonawane PP (2012) Assessment of traffic related air pollution and ambient air quality of metropolitan cities (case study of Pune city). IOSR Journal of Engineering 2(6):1382–1390, DOI: https://doi.org/10.9790/3021-026113821390

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goyal SK, Ghatge SV, Nema P, Tamhane SM (2006) Understanding urban vehicular pollution problem vis-a-vis ambient air quality–case study of a megacity (Delhi, India). Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 119(1–3):557–569, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-005-9043-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Harish M (2012) A study on air pollution by automobiles in Bangalore city. Management Research and Practice 4(3):25–36

    Google Scholar 

  • Hunashal RB, Patil YB (2011) Environmental noise pollution in Kolhapur city, Maharashtra, India. Nature Environment and Pollution Technology 10(1):39–44

    Google Scholar 

  • Jain S, Dhiman PK (2017) Road transport in economic development. International Journal of Management and Applied Science 3(9):33–35

    Google Scholar 

  • Jha K, Sinha N, Arkatkar SS, Sarkar AK (2013) Modeling growth trend and forecasting techniques for vehicular population in India. International Journal for Traffic and Transport Engineering 3(2):139–158, DOI: https://doi.org/10.7708/ijtte.2013.3(2).04

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li C, Li J (2016) A solution of GM(1,1) based on excel. Business and Management Research 5(3):86–91, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5430/bmr.v5n3p86

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li S, Li R (2017) Comparison of forecasting energy consumption in Shandong, China using the ARIMA model, GM model, and ARIMA-GM model. Sustainability 9(7):1181, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li Y, Ling L, Chen J (2015) Combined grey prediction fuzzy control law with application to road tunnel ventilation system. Journal of Applied Research and Technology 13(2):313–320, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jart.2015.06.009

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li GD, Yamaguchi D, Nagai M (2007) A GM(1,1)-Markov chain combined model with an application to predict the number of Chinese international airlines. Technological Forecasting & Social Change 74(8):1465–1481, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.07.010

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li P, Zhang J (2019) Is China’s energy supply sustainable? New research model based on the exponential smoothing and GM(1,1) methods. Energies 12(2):236, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en12020236

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lin T, Tsai CCL (2015) A simple linear regression approach to modeling and forecasting mortality rates. Journal of Forecasting 34(7):543–559, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/FOR.2353

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Lu IJ, Lewis C, Lin SJ (2009) The forecast of motor vehicle, energy demand and CO emission from Taiwan’s road transportation sector. Energy Policy 37(8):2952–2961, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.200999.03.039

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Madhi MH, Mohamed N (2017) An improved GM(1,1) model based on modified background value. Information Technology Journal 16(1):11–16, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3923/itj.2017.11.16

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH) (2012) Road transport year book (2009–10 & 2010–11). Transport Research Wing, Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Government of India, New Delhi

    Google Scholar 

  • Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith TL (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers (ASABE) 50(3):885–900, DOI: https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153

    Google Scholar 

  • Motor Vehicles Department Maharashtra (2018) Vehicles Population as on 31st March 1998 to 2017. Retrieved June 26, 2022, https://transport.maharashtra.gov.in/Site/Upload/GR/Vehicles%20Population%20as%20on%2031st%20March,1998%20to%2031st%20March%202017.pdf

  • Motor Vehicles Department Maharashtra (2008) Motor transport statistics of Maharashtra 2007–2008. Government of Maharashtra

  • Motor Vehicles Department Maharashtra (2010) Motor transport statistics of Maharashtra 2009–2010. Government of Maharashtra

  • Motor Vehicles Department Maharashtra (2011) Motor transport statistics of Maharashtra 2010–2011. Government of Maharashtra

  • Motor Vehicles Department Maharashtra (2012) Motor transport statistics of Maharashtra 2011–2012. Government of Maharashtra

  • Nelson D (2009) Using simple linear regression to assess the success of the Montreal protocol in reducing atmospheric chlorofluorocarbons. Journal of Statistics Education 17(2), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10691898.2009.11889520

  • Riley K (2002) Motor vehicles in China: The impact of demographic and economic changes. Population and Environment 23:479–494, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1015138118757

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sathe Y, Ayare A, Srinikethan G (2011) Application of US EPA PMF model to source apportionment of trace elements in atmospheric aerosols at Kolhapur, Maharashtra (India). Journal of Environmental Research and Development 5(3):597–607

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharma RD, Jain S, Singh K (2011) Growth rate of motor vehicles in India-impact of demographic and economic development. Journal of Economic and Social Studies 1(2):137–153, DOI: https://doi.org/10.14706/JECOSS11126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shinde S, Karjinni V (2019) Impact of traffic growth on air quality: A case study of Delhi, India. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers–Civil Engineering 172(1):39–44, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1680/jcien.18.00014

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh SK, Bansal A, Chhabra RS (2016) Traffic planning for small cities: A basic approach. Indian Journal of Science and Technology 9(44):1–8, DOI: https://doi.org/10.17485/ijst/2016/v9i44/105264

    Google Scholar 

  • Sood PR (2012) Air pollution through vehicular emissions in urban India and preventive measures. International conference on environment, energy and biotechnology (IPCBEE) 33:45–49, IACSIT Press, Singapore

    Google Scholar 

  • The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) (2016) Environmental status report of Kolhapur city 2015–16. Final Report, Kolhapur Municipal Corporation (KMC), Environmental Status Report (ESR) 2015–16, TERI, Western Regional Centre, Mumbai

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsai M-T, Hsiao S-W, Liang W-K (2005) Using grey theory to develop a model for forecasting the demand for telecommunications. Journal of Information and Optimization Sciences 26(3):535–547, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02522667.2005.10699664

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Wang Y wen, Shen Z Zhou, Jiang Y (2018) Comparison of ARIMA and GM(1,1) models for prediction of hepatitis B in China. PLoS ONE 13(9):e0201987, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0201987

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xie Y, Wang W, Li B, Zhao Z, He L, Wang Y (2017) Analysis of SO2 pollution in Baoding based on MATLAB grey model. Chemical Engineering Transactions 59:901–906, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3303/CET1759151

    Google Scholar 

  • Yuping W, Fangpeng Z, Kelei H, Chunxue L (2015) Research of combination of electricity GM (1,1) and seasonal time series forecasting model. International conference on information technology and management innovation (ICITMI 2015), 261–267, Atlantis Press

  • Zhang L, Wang L, Zheng Y, Wang K, Zhang X, Zheng Y (2017) Time prediction models for echinococcosis based on gray system theory and epidemic dynamics. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14(3):262, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14030262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhou C, Huang S, Lv T (2010) Combined grey forecast model with particle swarm optimizer. Fifth International conference on internet computing for science and engineering (ICICSE 2010), IEEE Computer Society, 10–13

Download references

Acknowledgments

We are very thankful to all government websites, official reports, and media reports for providing valuable information in the form of reports, the researchers and their papers for providing direct/indirect information, which encouraged the writing of this research paper. Similarly, we thank the Editor and two anonymous Reviewers for taking the time and effort to read the manuscript and suggesting essential improvements.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Shivaji University, Kolhapu, 416004, Maharashtra, India

    Sagar Maruti Shinde

  2. Dept. of Civil Engineering, Sanjeevan Engineering and Technology Institute, Panhala, 416201, Maharashtra, India

    Sagar Maruti Shinde

  3. Kolhapur Institute of Technology’s College of Engineering (Autonomous), Kolhapur, 416234, Maharashtra, India

    Vilas Vijay Karjinni

Authors
  1. Sagar Maruti Shinde
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Vilas Vijay Karjinni
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sagar Maruti Shinde.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Shinde, S.M., Karjinni, V.V. Motor Vehicles Forecasting in Kolhapur City Using Combined Grey Model. KSCE J Civ Eng 27, 2385–2391 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-023-1879-x

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-023-1879-x

Keywords

Search

Navigation