Abstract
The four representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios presented in the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is still widely used by researchers to assess the future effects of climate change in water resources management. However, the lack of providing scientific basis in the selection and application of climate scenarios in numerical models can further increase the uncertainties in the results. Therefore, this study aims to present an analytical and practical methodology for the selection of the representative climate scenario at Yongdam watershed. Based on the findings presented in this study, RCP6.0 scenario best represented the daily minimum temperature at Yongdam watershed for the past decade; the daily precipitation was best represented by RCP4.5 scenario. Furthermore, all four climate scenarios had the tendency to overestimate the magnitude and frequency of precipitation, which is an important factor that should be considered in the selection of climate scenarios. The results and methodology presented in this study can serve as a guideline in the selection of the most applicable climate scenario in other regions.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ahmad I, Tang D, Wang T, Wang M, Wagan B (2015) Precipitation trends over time using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests in swat river basin, Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology 2015:1–15, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/431860
Azam M, Maeng S, Kim H, Lee S, Lee J (2018) Spatial and temporal trend analysis of precipitation and drought in South Korea. Water 10(6):765, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w10060765
Felix ML, Kim Y, Choi M, Kim J, Do XK, Nguyen TH, Jung K (2021) Detailed trend analysis of extreme climate indices in the upper geum river basin. Water 13(22):3171, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13223171
IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (The Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri and L. Meyer, Eds.), Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland
Klein Tank AMG, Zwiers FW, Zhang X (2009) Guidelines on analysis of extremes in a changing climate in support of informed decisions for adaptation
Krause P, Boyle DP, Bäse F (2005) Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment. Advances in Geosciences 5:89–97, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-5-89-2005
Kundzewicz ZW, Stakhiv EZ (2010) Are climate models “ready for prime time” in water resources management applications, or is more research needed? Hydrological Sciences Journal 55(7):1085–1089, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2010.513211
Lee JM, Ahn J, Kim YD, Kang B (2021) Effect of climate change on long-term river geometric variation in Andong Dam watershed, Korea. Journal of Water and Climate Change 12(3):741–758, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2020.148
Lee J, Shin H (2021) Assessment of future climate change impact on an agricultural reservoir in South Korea. Water 13(15), DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w13152125
Li T, Kim G (2019) Impacts of climate change scenarios on non-point source pollution in the Saemangeum watershed, South Korea. Water 11(10), DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w11101982
Moriasi DN, Arnold JG, Van Liew MW, Bingner RL, Harmel RD, Veith T (2007) Model evaluation guidelines for systematic quantification of accuracy in watershed simulations. Transactions of the ASABE 50(3):885–900, DOI: https://doi.org/10.13031/2013.23153
Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I — A discussion of principles. Journal of Hydrology 10(3):282–290, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6
Noh S, Choi M, Jung K, Park J (2019) Prospect of discharge at daecheong and yongdam dam watershed under future greenhouse gas scenarios using SWAT model. Engineering Journal 23(6):469–476, DOI: https://doi.org/10.4186/ej.2019.23.6.469
Park JY, Jung H, Jang CH, Kim SJ (2014) Assessing climate change impact on hydrological components of yongdam dam watershed using RCP emission scenarios and SWAT model. Journal of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers 56(3):19–29, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2014.56.3.019
Park J, Jung E, Jung I, Cho J (2020) Does future climate bring greater streamflow simulated by the HSPF model to South Korea? Water (Switzerland) 12(7):1–19, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/W12071884
Peterson TC, Manton MJ (2008) Monitoring changes in climate extreme: A tale of international colloboration. American Meteorological Society 89(9):1266–1271
Quan NT, Khoi DN, Hoan NX, Phung NK, Dang TD (2021) Spatiotemporal trend analysis of precipitation extremes in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam during 1980–2017. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 12(1):131–146, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-020-00311-9
Wilby RL (2005) Uncertainty in water resource model parameters used for climate change impact assessment. Hydrological Processes 19(16):3201–3219, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5819
Yi, HS, Kim D, Hwang MH, An KG (2016) Assessment of runoff and water temperature variations under RCP Climate Change Scenario in Yongdam dam watershed, South Korea. Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment 32(2):173–182, DOI: https://doi.org/10.15681/kswe.2016.32.2.173
Yue S, Wang CY (2002) Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test. Water Resources Research 38(6):4-1–4-7, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2001WR000861
Acknowledgments
This research was supported and funded by the National Research Foundation of Korea, 2019K1A3A1A05087901.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Felix, M.L., Noh, S., Kim, Y. et al. Methodology for the Selection of the Representative Climate Scenario at Yongdam Watershed. KSCE J Civ Eng 27, 3609–3616 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-023-1834-x
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-023-1834-x