Abstract
This study investigates the commonalities and differences in aviation occurrences among three Northeast Asian countries–South Korea, China and Japan, using the ICAO’s Integrated Safety Trend Analysis and Reporting System (iSTARS) dataset. Logistic regression and latent class analysis are employed to identify factors influencing the likelihood of fatalities and to classify occurrences into distinct groups. The findings indicate that operational issues in airspace pose greater risks than runway-related issues in this region. The ground and landing flight phases have lower fatality likelihoods compared to the cruise phase, and winter seasons show reduced odds of fatalities. Latent class analysis identifies five distinct occurrence classes, highlighting specific risks and areas for targeted interventions. Technical and environmental issues are prominent in Japan, while operational issues during the cruise and maneuvering phases are significant in South Korea, associated with a high fatality rate. Light recreational general aviation flights pose a considerable risk of fatalities in China and Japan. The findings of this study highlight the need for comprehensive research to explore the causes and contributing factors of aviation occurrences in different countries to enhance safety practices and mitigate fatality risks.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Airbus (2023) Accidents by flight phase, Retrieved June 5, 2023, https://accidentstats.airbus.com/statistics/accident-by-flight-phase
Barnett A (2010) Cross-national differences in aviation safety records. Transportation Science 44(3):322–332, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/trsc.1090.0313
Bazargan M, Guzhva VS (2011) Impact of gender, age and experience of pilots on general aviation accidents. Accident Analysis & Prevention 43(3):962–970, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2010.11.023
Boeing (2022) Statistical summary of commercial jet airplane accidents: Worldwide operations 1959–2021, Retrieved June 5, 2023, https://www.boeing.com/resources/boeingdotcom/company/about_bca/pdf/statsum.pdf
Boyd DD (2017) A review of general aviation safety (1984–2017). Aerospace Medicine and Human Performance 88(7):657–664, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3357/AMHP.4862.2017
Boyd D, Dittmer P (2016) Accident rates, phase of operations, and injury severity for solo students in pursuit of private pilot certification (1994–2013). Journal of Aviation Technology and Engineering 6(1):6, DOI: https://doi.org/10.7771/2159-6670.1139
Byeon SC, Song BH, Lim SH (2008) A study on prevention as result of controlled-flight-into-terrain accident-focusing on guam accident, mokpo accident, gimhae accident. Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics 16(1):18–28 (in Korean)
CAPA (2023) Centre for aviation, Retrieved February 22, 2023, https://centreforaviation.com/
Coyle DJ, Smith MM, Flaherty GT (2021) Descriptive analysis of air rage Incidents aboard International commercial flights, 2000–2020. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 11:100418, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2021.100418
Czerny AI, Fu X, Lei Z, Oum TH (2021) Post pandemic aviation market recovery: Experience and lessons from China. Journal of Air Transport Management 90:101971, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101971
Dai L, Liu Y, Hansen M (2021) Modeling go-around occurrence using principal component logistic regression. Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies 129:103262, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2021.103262
Distefano N, Leonardi S (2019) Aircraft runway excursion features: A multiple correspondence analysis. Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology 91(1):197–203, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/AEAT-11-2017-0244
EUROCONTROL (2009) Reporting and assessment of safety occurrences in ATM-ESARR 2, Retrieved June 5, 2023, https://www.skybrary.aero/sites/default/files/bookshelf/268.pdf Evans (2015) Differences in characteristics of aviation accidents during 1993–2012 based on aircraft type (No. NF1676L-23285)
Fultz AJ, Ashley WS (2016) Fatal weather-related general aviation accidents in the United States. Physical Geography 37(5):291–312, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/02723646.2016.1211854
Gao F (2016) Negotiation from in the air to on the ground: Employment relation between pilots and C Airlines in China. PhD Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
He P, Sun R (2022) Trends and characteristics of incidents in china civil aviation: 1994–2020. Transportation Research Record 2677(5), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/03611981221131314
Hilbe JM (2009) Logistic regression models. Chapman and hall/CRC Houston SJ, Walton RO, Conway BA (2012) Analysis of general aviation instructional loss of control accidents. Journal of Aviation/Aerospace Education & Research 22(1):35–49, DOI: https://doi.org/10.15394/jaaer.2012.1402
ICAO (2019) ICAO iSTARS API Data service, Retrieved February 22, 2019, https://www.icao.int/Aviation-API-Data-Service/Pages/default.aspx
ICAO (2020) Annex 13–Aircraft Accident and Incident Investigation, Retrieved July 28, 2020, https://www.icao.int/safety/airnavigation/aig/pages/documents.aspx
ICAO (2021) Aviation Occurrence Categories Definitions and Usage Notes, Retrieved February 25, 2021, http://www.intlaviationstandards.org/apex/f?p=240:3:16730514539629::NO::P3_X:OC
Iwadare K, Oyama T (2015) Statistical data analyses on aircraft accidents in Japan: Occurrences, causes and countermeasures. American Journal of Operations Research 5(03):222
Ketabdari M, Giustozzi F, Crispino M (2018) Sensitivity analysis of influencing factors in probabilistic risk assessment for airports. Safety Science 107:173–187, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2017.07.005
Kim S, Lee J, Oh S, Yoon Y (2019) Assessment of the volcanic hazard of Mt. Paektu explosion to international air traffic using South Korean airspace. Natural Hazards 96:647–667, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3562-y
Kuo PF, Putra IGB, Setiawan FA, Wen TH, Chiu CS, Sulistyah UD (2022) The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on OD flow and airport networks in the origin country and in Northeast Asia. Journal of Air Transport Management 100:102192, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2022.102192
Li Z, Wu Q, Ci Y, Chen C, Chen X, Zhang G (2019) Using latent class analysis and mixed logit model to explore risk factors on driver injury severity in single-vehicle crashes. Accident Analysis & Prevention 129:230–240, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2019.04.001
Linzer DA, Lewis JB (2011) poLCA: An R package for polytomous variable latent class analysis. Journal of Statistical Software 42:1–29, DOI: https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v042.i10
Nguyen MH, Alam S (2017) Airspace collision risk hot-spot identification using clustering models. IEEE Transactions On Intelligent Transportation Systems 19(1):48–57, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/ITTS.2017.2691000
Noh Y, Yoon Y (2017) Elderly road collision injury outcomes associated with seat positions and seatbelt use in a rapidly aging society — A case study in South Korea. PLoS One 12(8):e0183043, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0183043
Nylund KL, Asparouhov T, Muthén BO (2007) Deciding on the number of classes in latent class analysis and growth mixture modeling: A Monte Carlo simulation study. Structural Equation Modeling: A Multidisciplinary Journal 14(4):535–569, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10705510701575396
Oh S, Kim S, Yoon Y (2020) An analysis of runway accident precursors based on latent class model. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering 24(9):2784–2793, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-020-2395-x
Pramono A, Middleton JH, Caponecchia C (2020) Civil aviation occurrences in Indonesia. Journal of Advanced Transportation 2020:1–17, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/3240764
Ripley B, Venables W, Ripley MB (2016) Package ‘nnet’. R Package Version 7(3–12):700
Savolainen P, Mannering F (2007) Probabilistic models of motorcyclists’ injury severities in single-and multi-vehicle crashes. Accident Analysis & Prevention 39(5):955–963, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2006.12.016
Shao PC, Chang YH, Chen HJ (2013) Analysis of an aircraft accident model in Taiwan. Journal of Air Transport Management 27:34–38, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2012.11.004
Sobieralski JB (2013) The cost of general aviation accidents in the United States. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice 47:19–27, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2012.10.018
Tani K (2010) Under-reporting in aviation: An investigation of factors that affect reporting of safety concerns. PhD Thesis, Massey University, New Zealand
Trucco P, De Ambroggi M, Leva, MC (2015) Topological risk mapping of runway overruns: A probabilistic approach. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 142:433–443, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.06.006
Uitdewilligen S, de Voogt AJ (2009) Aircraft accidents with student pilots flying solo: Analysis of 390 cases. Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine 80(9):803–806, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3357/ASEM.2510.2009
Valdés RMA, Comendador VFG, Castán JAP, Sanz AR, Sanz LP, Ayra ES, Nieto FJS (2019) Development of safety performance functions (SPFs) to analyse and predict aircraft loss of separation in accordance with the characteristics of the airspace. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 186:143–161, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2019.02.007
Vermunt JK, Magidson J (2002) Latent class cluster analysis. Applied Latent Class Analysis 11(89–106):60
Wagner DC, Barker K (2014) Statistical methods for modeling the risk of runway excursions. Journal of Risk Research 17(7):885–901, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13669877.2013.822913
Wen H, Ma Z, Chen Z, Luo C (2023) Analyzing the impact of curve and slope on multi-vehicle truck crash severity on mountainous freeways. Accident Analysis & Prevention 181:106951, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2022.106951
Wong DK, Pitfield DE, Caves RE, Appleyard AJ (2006) Quantifying and characterising aviation accident risk factors. Journal of Air Transport Management 12(6):352–357, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2006.09.002
Yu R Wang X, Abdel-Aty M (2017) A hybrid latent class analysis modeling approach to analyze urban expressway crash risk. Accident Analysis & Prevention 101:37–43, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2017.02.002
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Oh, S., Cho, J. Comparative Analysis of Aviation Occurrence Patterns among Three Northeast Asian Countries: South Korea, China and Japan. KSCE J Civ Eng 27, 4897–4905 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-023-0661-4
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-023-0661-4