Abstract
This article describes a model for predicting the degradation of in-service railway bridges based on a semi-Markov continuous time process. This model relies on the history of inspections of 588 bridges located on a heavy-haul railway line in Brazil, between 2016 and 2020. A dedicated computational tool developed in Matlab allows the automated data processing. A parametric study is performed to understand which factors derived from the bridge structural characteristics, as well as operational and environmental factors, most influence the deterioration model. The type of material proves to be a decisive factor and therefore two specific prediction models are stablished, one for concrete bridges and other to steel bridges. The prediction models have an efficiency equal to 93.7%, for concrete bridges, and 95.1% for steel bridges. Additionally, the analysis of several preventive and corrective maintenance scenarios, specifically for concrete bridges, allows to optimize the condition ratings during the life cycle.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abdelkader E, Marzouk M, Zayed T (2018) Modeling of concrete bridge decks deterioration using a Hybrid stochastic model, CSCE 2018 — Building Tomorrow’s Society, The Canadian Society for Civil Engineering, Fredericton, Canada
Abed-Al-Rahim I, Johnston W (1995) Bridge element deterioration rates. Transportation Research Record, 1490, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C, USA, 9–18
ABNT (Associacao Brasileira de Normas Tecnicas) (2014) NBR 6118: Design of concrete structures — Procedure. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (in Portuguese)
ABNT (Associacao Brasileira de Normas Tecnicas) (2019) NBR 9452: Inspection of concrete bridges and footbridges — Procedures. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (in Portuguese)
Almeida J, Teixeira P, Delgado R (2015) Life cycle cost optimization in highway concrete bridges management. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 11(10):1263–1276, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2013.845578
Alves V, Meixedo A, Ribeiro D, Calçada R, Cury A (2015) Evaluation of the performance of different damage indicators in railway bridges. Procedia Engineering 114:746–753, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2015.08.020
Austroads (2002) Bridge management systems: State of the Art. Austroads Publication No. AP-R198/02
Butt A, Shahin M, Feighan K, Carpenter S (1987) Pavement performance prediction model using the markov process. Transportation Research Records 1123:12–19
Callow D, Lee J, Blumenstein M, Guan H, Loo Y-C (2013) Development of hybrid optimisation method for Artificial Intelligence based bridge deterioration model — Feasibility study. Automation in Construction 31:83–91, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.autcon.2012.11.016
Calvert Q Neves L, Andrews J, Hamer M (2020) Multi-defect modelling of bridge deterioration using truncated inspection records. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 200:106962, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2020.106962
Cesare M, Santamarina C, Turkstra C, Vanmarcke E (1992) Modeling bridge deterioration with Markov chains. Journal of Transportation Engineering 118(6):820–833
Farrera F (2006) Optimización conjunta de las políticas de mantenimiento y rehabilitación en Puentes mediante Algoritmos Genéticos. Aplicación al Sistema de Gestión de Puentes del Estado de Chiapas (México), Tesis Doctoral, Universitat Politécnica de Catalunya (in Spanish)
Federal Highway Administration (FHA) (2012) Bridge Inspector’s reference manual (BIRM). FHWA-NHI-12-049, Washington D.C
Frangopol D, Kallen M, Van Noortwijk J (2004) Probabilistic models for life-cycle performance of deteriorating structures: Review and future directions. Progress in Structural Engineering and Materials 6(4):197–212, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/pse.180
Godart B, Vassie P (2001) Bridge management systems: Extended review of existing systems and outline framework for a european System. BRIME — Deliverable D13
Huang Y (2010) Artificial neural network model of bridge deterioration. Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities 24(6):597–602, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000124
Isailović D, Petronijević M, Hajdin R (2019) The future of BIM and bridge management systems. IABSE Symposium, Guimarães, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2749/guimaraes.2019.1673
Jackson C, Sharples L, Thompson S, Duffy S, Couto E (2003) Multistate Markov models for disease progression with classification error. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician) 52(2):193–209, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9884.00351
Jiang Y (2010) Application and comparison of regression and markov chain methods in bridge condition prediction and system benefit optimization. Journal of the Transportation Research Forum 49(2):91–110, DOI: https://doi.org/10.5399/OSU/JTRF.49.2.4501
Jiang Y, Sinha K (1989) Bridge service life prediction model using the Markov chain. Transportation Research Record 1223:24–30
Kalbfleisch J, Lawless J (1985) The analysis of panel data under a Markov assumption. Journal of the American Statistical Association 80(392): 863–871, DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2288545
Kallen M (2009) A comparison of statistical models for visual inspection data. 10th International Conference on structural safety and reliability (ICOSSAR), Osaka, Japan 3235–3242
Kallen M, Noortwijk J (2006) Statistical inference for Markov deterioration models of bridge conditions in the Netherlands. 3rd International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management (IABMAS 2006), 535–536, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1201/B18175-219
Madanat S, Mishalani R, Ibrahim W (1995) Estimation of infrastructure transition probabilities from condition rating data. Journal of Infrastructure Systems 1(2):120–125, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(1995)1:2(120)
Masovic S, Hajdin R (2014) Modelling of bridge elements deterioration for Serbian bridge inventory. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering 10(8):976–987, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2013.774426
Mauch M, Madanat S (2001) Semiparametric hazard rate models of reinforced concrete bridge deck deterioration. Journal of Infrastructure Systems 7(2):49–57, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(2001)7:2(49)
Meixedo A, Santos J, Ribeiro D, Calçada R, Todd M (2021) Damage detection in railway bridges using traffic-induced dynamic responses. Engineering Structures 238:112189, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engstruct.2021.112189
Mirzaei A, Adey B, Klatter L, Kong J (2012) Overview of existing bridge management systems — Report by the IABMAS Bridge Management Committee, 6th International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management (IABMAS 2012)
Morcous G (2006) Performance prediction of bridge deck systems using Markov chains. Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities 20(2):146–155, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3828(2006)20:2(146)
Morcous G, Hatami A (2011) Developing deterioration models for nebraska bridges. MATC Report, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Final Report 26-1122-0003-001
Morcous G, Lounis Z, Cho Y (2010) An integrated system for bridge management using probabilistic and mechanistic deterioration models: Application to bridge decks. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering 14(4):527–537, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-010-0527-4
Morcous G, Rivard H, Hanna A (2002) Case-based reasoning system for modeling infrastructure deterioration. Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering 16(2):104–114, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(2002)16:2(104)
Oliveira C, Greco M, Bittencourt T (2019) Analysis of the Brazilian federal bridge inventory. Revista IBRACON de Estruturas e Materials 12(1):1–3, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S1983-41952019000100002
Powers N, Frangopol D, Al-Mahaidi R, Caprani C (2018) Maintenance, Safety, Risk, Management and Life-Cycle Performance of Bridges, Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Bridge Maintenance, Safety and Management (IABMAS 2018), DOI: https://doi.org/10.1201/9781315189390
Ribeiro D, Santos R, Shibasaki A, Montenegro P, Carvalho H, Calçada R (2020) Remote inspection of RC structures using unmanned aerial vehicles and heuristic image processing. Engineering Failure Analysis 117:104813, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2020.104813
Ryall M (2010) Bridge management. 2nd Edition, Elsevier
Saaty RW (1987) The analytic hierarchy process — what it is and how it is used. Mathematical Modelling 9(3–5):161–176, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0270-0255(87)90473-8
Santos A, Bonatte M, Sousa H, Bittencourt T, Matos J (2022) Improvement of the inspection interval of highway bridges through predictive models of deterioration. Buildings 12(2):124, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings12020124
Scherer W, Glagola D (1994) Markovian models for bridge maintenance management. Journal of Transportation Engineering 120(1):37–51, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1994)120:1(37)
Srikanth I, Arockiasamy M (2020) Deterioration models for prediction of remaining useful life of timber and concrete bridges: A review. Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering 7(2):152–173, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtte.2019.09.005
Thompson P, Ford K, Arman M, Labi S, Sinha K, Shirole A (2012) Estimating life expectancies of highway assets, NCHRP, Volume 2: Final Report, Federal Highway Administration, US Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C, DOI: https://doi.org/10.17226/22783
Woodward R, Cullington D, Daly A, Vassie P, Haardt P, Kashner R, Astudillo R, Velando C, Godart B, Cremona C, Mahut A, Raharinaivo L, Markey I, Bevc L, Peruš I (2001) BRIME — Final Report. Deliverable D14
Zambon I, Vidovic A, Strauss A, Matos J, Amado J (2017) Comparison of stochastic prediction models based on visual inspections of bridge decks. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management 23:553–561, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3846/13923730.2017.1323795
Zhang Y, Chouinard L, Conciatori D (2018) Markov chain-based stochastic modeling of chloride ion transport in concrete bridges. Frontiers in Built Environment 4:1–12, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2018.00012
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the support provided by the railway infrastructure department of the company Rumo Logística in carrying out the research. The second author would like to acknowledge the support of the Base Funding UIDB/04708/2020 and Programmatic Funding UIDP/04708/2020 of the CONSTRUCT (Instituto de I&D em Estruturas e Construções) funded by national funds through the FCT/MCTES (PIDDAC).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Furtado, F., Ribeiro, D. Railway Bridge Management System Based on Visual Inspections with Semi-Markov Continuous Time Process. KSCE J Civ Eng 27, 233–250 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-022-0387-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-022-0387-8