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Rainfall-Earthquake-Induced Landslide Hazard Prediction by Monte Carlo Simulation: A Case Study of MT. Umyeon in Korea

  • Geotechnical Engineering
  • Published:
KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering Aims and scope

Abstract

Rainfall and earthquakes are two major triggers for landslides. To assess annual rainfall-earthquake-induced landslide hazards, an ensemble model containing three modules: an uncertainty-analysis module, a simulation module and an output module was proposed. In the uncertainty-analysis module, the input parameters including the topography (slope, curvature), soil depth, rainfall, peak ground acceleration and soil physical properties were considered probabilistic rather than taking specific values. A rainfall-earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment was carried out in the simulation module, which used two separate methods: a pseudo-static model and a Newmark displacement model based on probabilistic data, which were prepared in the uncertainty-analysis module using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. In the output module, the two landslide hazard evaluations were combined into one map. The combined landslide hazard provides a range of annual probabilities of landslide occurrence corresponding to specific confidence levels. The proposed model can be used for reliable forecasting at specific confidence levels.

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Acknowledgements

This research was supported by a basic research grant from the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), funded by the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (grant no. 2018R1D1A1B07049360), and by funding from the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) (grant no. 2018R1A4A 1025765) and the Brain Korea 21 Plus (BK 21 Plus) initiative.

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  1. Dept. of Ocean Engineering, Pukyong National University, Busan, 48513, Korea

    Vinh Ba-Quang Nguyen

  2. Dept. of Ocean Engineering, Pukyong National University, Busan, 48513, Korea

    Yun-Tae Kim

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  1. Vinh Ba-Quang Nguyen
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  2. Yun-Tae Kim
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Correspondence to Yun-Tae Kim.

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Nguyen, V.BQ., Kim, YT. Rainfall-Earthquake-Induced Landslide Hazard Prediction by Monte Carlo Simulation: A Case Study of MT. Umyeon in Korea. KSCE J Civ Eng 24, 73–86 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-020-0963-8

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