Skip to main content

Section-based multifunctional calibration method for pavement deterioration forecasting model

Abstract

Deterioration forecasting modeling is an essential element for an efficient pavement management system. The HDM-4 (Highway Development & Management-4) model developed by the World Bank is widely distributed to more than 100 countries around the world. However, many users often point out problems related to calibration limitations, and question the reliability of their results due to the extremely large number of variables, and difficulty in the calibration procedure of deterioration models in the HDM-4. The current calibration method based on the Network-based approach which was introduced by the HDM-4 developer and has several limitations in describing the precise deterioration progress, and practical application. In fact, many HDM-4 users often give up implementation due to these reasons. To mitigate these problems, this paper suggests an improved calibration method for the HDM-4 deterioration models relevant to the deterioration speed and shape of the curve. The benefits are not limited to only high precision calibration, but also easy application by minimum data, and covering problems on incomplete pavement inventory data which are considered the most serious problems in the application of the HDM-4. The validity of the suggested methods was empirically shown through experience with the national highways in Korea. This paper could be a good reference for the implementation of the current HDM-4 model, as well as its future improvement.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution.

References

  • Bennett, C. R. and Paterson, W. D. O. (2000). The highway development and management series Vol. 5: A guide to calibration and adaptation, World Road Association (PIARC), Paris, France.

    Google Scholar 

  • Do, M., Han, D., Lee, J., and Lee, Y. (2007). “Economic evaluation for road pavement maintenance by using HDM.” J. of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 27, No. 3D, pp. 311–323.

    Google Scholar 

  • Do, M., Han, D., Yoo, I., and Lee, S. (2006). “Performance and economic analysis for rut-resistance pavement considering life cycle cost.” J. of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 26, No. 5D, pp. 783–796.

    Google Scholar 

  • Han, D., Do, M., Kim, S., and Kim, J. (2007). “Life cycle cost analysis of pavement maintenance standard considering user and socio-environmental cost.” J. of the Korean Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 27, No. 6D, pp. 727–740.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jain, S. S., Aggarwal, S., and Parida, M. (2005). “HDM-4 pavement deterioration models for indian national highway network.” ASCE J. of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 131, No. 8, pp. 623–631.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jiang, Y., Saito, M., and Sinha, K. C. (1989). Bridge performance prediction model using the Markov chain, Transportation Research Record, 1180, TRB, pp. 25–32.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kerali, H. G. R. (2000). The highway development and management series Vol. 1: Overview of HDM-4, World Road Association, (PIARC), Paris, France.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kobayashi, K., Do, M., and Han, D. (2010). “Estimation of markovian transition probabilities for pavement deterioration forecasting.” KSCE J. of Civil Engineering, Vol.14, No. 3, pp.343–351.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li, J., Stephen T., M., Joe P., M., and George C., W. (2004). Application of HDM-4 in the WSDOT highway system, Washington State Transportation Center (TRAC), Washington, D.C., U.S.

    Google Scholar 

  • Morosiuk, G., Riley, M. J., and Odoki, J. B. (2000). The highway development and management series Vol. 6: Modeling road deterioration and works effects, World Road Association (PIARC), Paris, France.

    Google Scholar 

  • Odoki, J. B. and Kerali, H. G. R. (2000). The highway development and management series Vol. 4: Analytical framework and model descriptions, World Road Association (PIARC), Paris, France.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsuda, Y., Kaito, K., Aoki, K., and Kobayashi, K. (2006). “Estimating markov transition probabilities for bridge deterioration forecasting.” JSCE J. of Structural Eng./ Earthquake Eng., Vol. 23, No. 2, pp. 241s–256s.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsunokawa, K. and Ul-Islam, R. (2003). “Optimal pavement design and maintenance strategy for developing countries: An analysis using HDM-4.” The International J. of Pavement Engineering, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 193–208.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tsunokawa, K. and Ul-Islam, R. (2007). “Pitfalls of HDM-4 strategy analysis.” The International J. of Pavement Engineering, Vol. 8, No.1, pp. 67–77.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yang, J., Lu, J. J., Gunaratne, M., and Dietrich, B. (2006). “Modeling crack deterioration of flexible pavements: Comparison of recurrent Markov chains and artificial neural networks.” J. of Transportation Research Board, No. 1974, pp. 18–25.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yang, J., Manjriker, G., Lu, J., and Bruce, D. (2005). “Use of recurrent markov chains for modeling the crack performance of flexible pavement.” ASCE J. of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 131, No. 11, pp. 861–872.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Myungsik Do.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Han, D., Kobayashi, K. & Do, M. Section-based multifunctional calibration method for pavement deterioration forecasting model. KSCE J Civ Eng 17, 386–394 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-013-1934-0

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12205-013-1934-0

Keywords

  • pavement management
  • HDM-4 (Highway Development & Management-4)
  • deterioration model
  • section-based calibration
  • multifunctional approach
  • Korean national highways