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Reliability Evaluation Method Based on Double Beta Prior Distribution for the Pyrotechnic Device

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Abstract

On the basis of the Bayesian principle, a method of selecting the double beta distribution as a priori distribution is proposed for the system reliability evaluation when the available field test samples are small for pyrotechnic device. Under the condition of different field and historical data, the mean square error (MSE) and coverage ratio (CR) of the reliability evaluation are compared by numerical simulation when the conjugate distribution and uniform distribution are selected as the priori distribution. Finally, the rationality and engineering applicability of the proposed method are verified through an example of the reliability evaluation of a typical pyrotechnic device.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China

    Li Cheng  (程 立), Yuanyuan Yang  (杨媛媛), Huina Mu  (穆慧娜), Xiaoyu Yang  (杨小玉), Li Li  (李 立) & Yuquan Wen  (温玉全)

Authors
  1. Li Cheng  (程 立)
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  2. Yuanyuan Yang  (杨媛媛)
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  3. Huina Mu  (穆慧娜)
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  4. Xiaoyu Yang  (杨小玉)
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  5. Li Li  (李 立)
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  6. Yuquan Wen  (温玉全)
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Huina Mu  (穆慧娜).

Additional information

Foundation item: the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. U1530135)

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Cheng, L., Yang, Y., Mu, H. et al. Reliability Evaluation Method Based on Double Beta Prior Distribution for the Pyrotechnic Device. J. Shanghai Jiaotong Univ. (Sci.) 24, 622–627 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12204-019-2102-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12204-019-2102-6

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