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Methods for calculating intervals of reconstructed results in traffic accidents with different types of interval traces

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Abstract

In order to obtain more effective uncertainty analysis methods for analyzing uncertainty of a reconstructed result in a traffic accident with different types of interval traces, three new methods are proposed. The first method is named as sub-interval perturbed method, it is used for calculating the binary interval of the reconstructed result in an accident with binary interval traces, and it can overcome the interval extension problem well. The second method is based on interval arithmetic and the first method, it is used for calculating the ternary interval of the accident reconstruction result in an accident with ternary interval traces, and the most probable value of the reconstructed result is a number. The basic idea of the third method is the same as that of the second method, it is used for calculating the ternary interval of the accident reconstruction result in an accident with mixed interval traces, and the most probable value of the reconstructed result is an interval. All methods are demonstrated and validated by numerical cases. The results show that all methods are feasible and practical. Finally, a true vehicle-motorcycle accident is given, in which the braking distance of vehicle, and the throw distances of driver and motorcycle are all binary interval traces. The accident is reconstructed by the software PC-Crash, and the interval of impact velocity is analyzed. The interval of the velocity is [55.7, 64.3] km/h. This interval result is more objective than a single number.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Automobile and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, 410004, China

    Tiefang Zou  (邹铁方), Hua Li  (李华), Yuelin Li  (李岳林) & Jing Xiao  (肖璟)

  2. Hunan Province Key Laboratory of Safety Design and Reliability Technology for Engineering Vehicle, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha, 410004, China

    Tiefang Zou  (邹铁方), Hua Li  (李华), Yuelin Li  (李岳林) & Jing Xiao  (肖璟)

  3. School of Engineering, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, 510275, China

    Ming Cai  (蔡铭)

Authors
  1. Tiefang Zou  (邹铁方)
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  2. Hua Li  (李华)
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  3. Yuelin Li  (李岳林)
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  4. Ming Cai  (蔡铭)
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  5. Jing Xiao  (肖璟)
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Tiefang Zou  (邹铁方).

Additional information

Foundation item: the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51208065), the Science and Technology Planning Project of Hunan Province (No. 2015JC3056), the Science and Technology Planning Project of Guangdong Province (No. 2015B010110005), and the Project of Hunan Province key Laboratory of Safety Design and Reliability Technology for Engineering Vehicle (No. KF1506)

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Zou, T., Li, H., Li, Y. et al. Methods for calculating intervals of reconstructed results in traffic accidents with different types of interval traces. J. Shanghai Jiaotong Univ. (Sci.) 22, 555–561 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12204-017-1868-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12204-017-1868-7

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