Approximate method for reliability assessment of complex phased mission systems

Abstract

Phased-mission systems (PMSs) have wide applications in engineering practices, such as manmade satellites. Certain critical parts in the system, such as cold standby, hot standby and functional standby, are designed in redundancy architecture to achieve high reliability performance. State-space models such as Markov process have been used extensively in previous studies for reliability evaluation of PMSs with dynamic behaviors. The most popular way to deal with the dynamic behaviors is Markov process, but it is well known that Markov process is limited to exponential distribution. In practice, however, the lifetime of most machinery products can follow non-exponential distributions like the Weibull distribution which cannot be handled by the Markov process. In order to solve this kind of problem, we present a semi-Markov model combined with an approximation algorithm to analyze PMS reliability subjected to non-exponential failures. Furthermore, the accuracy of the approximation algorithm is investigated by comparing to an accurate solution, and a typical PMS (attitude and orbit control system) is analyzed to demonstrate the implementation of the method.