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Improving flood forecasting through feature selection by a genetic algorithm – experiments based on real data from an Amazon rainforest river

Abstract

This paper addresses the problem of feature selection aiming to improve a flood forecasting model. The proposed model is carried out through a case study that uses 18 different time series of thirty-five years of hydrological data, forecasting the level of the Xingu River, in the Amazon rainforest in Brazil. We employ a Genetic Algorithm for the task of feature selection and exploit several different genetic parameters seeking to improve the accuracy of the prediction. The features selected by the Genetic Algorithm are used as input of a Linear Regression model that performs the forecasting. A statistical analysis verifies that the final model can predict the river level with high accuracy, which obtains a coefficient of determination equal to 0.988. Hence, the proposed Genetic Algorithm showed to be successful in selecting the most relevant features.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Equation for the Coefficient of Determination:

    1. 1.

      \(R^{2} = 1 - \frac {{\sum }_{i=1}^{n}(y_{true}- y_{pred})^{2}}{{\sum }_{i=1}^{n}(y_{true} - \bar {y})^{2}}\), where ytrue is the data set, ypred is the prediction, \(\bar {y}\) is the average of y, and n is number of the observations.

  2. 2.

    Equation for the Root Mean Square Error:

    1. 2.

      \(RMSE = \sqrt { \frac {1}{n} {\sum }_{i=i}^{n} (y_{true} - y_{pred})^{2}}\)

  3. 3.

    Equation for the Mean Absolute Error:

    1. 3.

      \(MAE = \frac {1}{n} {\sum }_{i=i}^{n} |y_{true} - y_{pred}|\)

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the following colleagues due to help revising the manuscript and providing ideas to its best organization: Bruno S. Faiçal, Leandro Y. Mano, Vinícius Gonçalves and Pedro H. Gomes. The authors would like also to thank Márcio Nirlando Gomes Lopes due to his help in the development of Figure 3. Dr. J. Ueyama would like to acknowledge FAPESP, process 2018/17335-9.

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Correspondence to Alen Costa Vieira.

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Communicated by: H. Babaie

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Vieira, A.C., Garcia, G., Pabón, R.E.C. et al. Improving flood forecasting through feature selection by a genetic algorithm – experiments based on real data from an Amazon rainforest river. Earth Sci Inform 14, 37–50 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-020-00528-8

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Keywords

  • River level forecasting
  • Genetic algorithm
  • Feature selection
  • Linear regression