Abstract
Research documents that forecasts about the emotional consequences of decisions are prone to error. However, there is relatively little known about affective forecasts regarding engaging in activities (versus about the consequences of decisions or outcomes). Here, we examined affective forecasting in the context of a trail race, hypothesizing that forecasts about engaging in an activity (i.e., running the race) were more accurate than forecasts about completing it (i.e., finishing the race). We also investigated whether forecasting accuracy differed for the valence and arousal dimensions of affect and among different discrete emotions. Results of the within-person study showed that affective forecasts largely were inaccurate in reference to engaging in the activity and completing it. Accuracy varied between valence and arousal as well as among emotions of a given valence.
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Data Availability
The data and code is available upon request to the first author.
Notes
Of note, the null result for nervousness suggests that these findings were not simply due to positivity coloring all responses.
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Funding
The research described herein was sponsored by the U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences, Department of the Army (Grant No. W911NF-16–1-0513). The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, DOD, or the U.S. Government. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
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Ethics approval was sought for this study by George Mason University’s Institutional Review Board, which approved this study and declared this research exempt. The study’s IRB number is 1468753.
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Aitken, J.A., Kaplan, S.A., Pagan, O. et al. Affective Forecasts for the Experience Itself: An Investigation of the Impact Bias during an Affective Experience. Curr Psychol 42, 10581–10587 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-021-02337-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-021-02337-8