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The Sino-US-Vietnam Triangle in a Belt and Road Era

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Abstract

Given systemic anarchy, small states like Vietnam have two basic foreign policy options: (1) align closely with one great power or (2) maintain a hedging posture. The choice between alignment and hedging for small states generally represents a trade-off between survival and autonomy and is mostly predicated on the action of relevant great powers. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is particularly important in this case, as it could be the key factor deciding Vietnam’s overall posture toward China over the long term. While China’s expansionist behavior in the South China Sea has pushed Vietnam toward alignment with the USA, the BRI, if implemented successfully, could convince Vietnam that maintaining the default hedging position is the best option.

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Notes

  1. The importance of technological infrastructures springs also from export data and the involvement of Chinese firms in the worldwide expansion of infrastructures. For instance, the cumulative contract value of overseas railway construction projects in 2014 tripled the previous year and was at 24.7 billion US dollars [49]. In dam construction, Chinese companies have globally, and particularly in Southeast Asia, by far the largest share.

  2. Most major newspapers and think tanks have published some articles or briefings on China’s BRI in recent years.

  3. For exceptions, see for instance Cavanna [44] and Wang [52].

  4. Note that this is not the same kind of infrastructural power that some comparativists use to denote states’ ability to enforce policy throughout their territory [22].

  5. For instance, it has been argued that the USA designed some alliances to maximize its control over allies’ foreign policies [2].

  6. Well-known IR theorists in modern times such as Alexander Wendt, E. H. Carr, Hans J. Morgenthau, Hedley Bull, John Ikenberry, John Mearsheimer, Joseph Nye, Kenneth Waltz, Robert Jervis, and Robert Keohane are all white, Anglo-Saxon males.

  7. There is a small but significant body of literature on small state foreign policy. See, for example, Keohane [19], Hey [12].

  8. See Harkett and Yalcin [10] for an extensive explanation as to why international politics is a struggle for autonomy rather than a struggle for power or influence as posited by realists.

  9. A number of works have discussed hedging in the context of China’s rise. See Foot [8], Hiep [13, 10], and Medeiros [29, 23].

  10. It is highly likely that states have different levels of threat tolerance. As such, it would be reasonable to expect that the smaller the country is geographically, the more expansive its definition of a grave threat would be.

  11. For a comprehensive analysis of Sino-Vietnamese relations, see Womack [54].

  12. For a discussion of how Vietnam is pursuing closer relations with these powers, see Hiep and Tsvetov [15].

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Brandeis University, 415 South Street, Waltham, MA, 02453, USA

    Ngo Di Lan

  2. University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Truong-Minh Vu

  3. School of Public and Environmental Affairs (SPEA), The Indiana University, Bloomington, USA

    Truong-Minh Vu

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  1. Ngo Di Lan
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Di Lan, N., Vu, TM. The Sino-US-Vietnam Triangle in a Belt and Road Era. East Asia 36, 229–241 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12140-019-09318-6

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