The Effect of the Business Cycle on Apprenticeship Training: Evidence from Germany


The benefits of dual apprenticeship programs are usually discussed in the context of reducing structural unemployment rates, especially among the young. Related to this, the long-run benefits of dual apprenticeship programs are extensively analyzed in the literature. However, empirical evidence regarding the short-run effects of the business cycle on the number of apprenticeships is scarce. In this paper, we use panel-data at the German federal states level ranging from 1999 through 2012 to analyze the effects of the business cycle on the number of new apprenticeship contracts. Using different sample periods and model specifications, we do not find a robust and significant effect of the business cycle on apprenticeships. Hence, the apprenticeship system seems to dampen the volatility of youth unemployment.

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Correspondence to Guido Baldi.

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We thank participants and two anonymous referees for useful comments. All remaining errors are the responsibility of the authors. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of DIW.

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Baldi, G., Brüggemann-Borck, I. & Schlaak, T. The Effect of the Business Cycle on Apprenticeship Training: Evidence from Germany. J Labor Res 35, 412–422 (2014).

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  • Economic fluctuations
  • Education
  • Hiring
  • Unemployment

JEL Classification

  • E32
  • I21
  • J63