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Unionization and nonunion wage patterns:

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We argue that a nonunion worker’s support for unionization depends not only on the expected gain in wages, but also on the probability of retaining employment after union-ization. Incorporating this point generates no prediction that low-wage workers will receive the largest threat-induced supplements as they are the ones who are least likely to retain their jobs after unionization. In short, which group of workers will receive the largest union induced wage supplement is ambiguous.

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Donohue, S.M., Heywood, J.S. Unionization and nonunion wage patterns:. J Labor Res 21, 489–502 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12122-000-1023-2

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