Empty pack survey to estimate Illicit Tobacco Trade in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina

Abstract

While Illicit Tobacco Trade (ITT) is a serious threat to the effectiveness of tobacco control policies worldwide, to this day tobacco-industry independent estimations of the size of the market for illicit tobacco products in the region are still very scarce. There is evidence that the tobacco industry often manipulates ITT estimates to influence policy-making and hinder tobacco control measures. In this study, we sought to bridge this knowledge gap by generating data on the prevalence of cigarette illicit trade in the city of Buenos Aires, capital of Argentina. We used an empty tobacco pack survey approach with a simple random cluster sampling design. A total of 4,906 packs were collected. Determination of packs as licit/illicit was conducted by forensic analysis of tax stamps and econometric modelling. Cigarette packs manufactured in country dominated the sample (97%), of which 3.71% (CI 95%:3.18%-4.24%) could be categorized as illicit cigarettes carrying counterfeit stamps. Most illicit packs (96%) belonged to low price brands manufactured by national tobacco companies, which suggests that low-income households may be more affected by ITT products. It is essential to implement an effective track and trace system that incorporates mechanisms to hinder stamp forgery and control stamp authenticity. A combined effort to increase tobacco taxation and reduce ITT is necessary to reduce tobacco consumption.