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Prognostic model of ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer predicted by clinically relevant indicators

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Abstract

Purpose

To study the clinicopathological variables connected with disease-free survival (DFS) as well as overall survival (OS) in patients who are ER-positive or HER2-negative and to propose nomograms for predicting individual risk.

Methods

In this investigation, we examined 585 (development cohort) and 291 (external validation) ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer patients from January 2010 to January 2014. From January 2010 to December 2014, we retrospectively reviewed and analyzed 291 (external validation) and 585 (development cohort) HER2-negative, ER-positive breast cancer patients. Cox regression analysis, both multivariate and univariate, confirmed the independence indicators for OS and DFS.

Results

Using cox regression analysis, both multivariate and univariate, the following variables were combined to predict the DFS of development cohort: pathological stage (HR = 1.391; 95% CI = 1.043–1.855; P value = 0.025), luminal parting (HR = 1.836; 95% CI = 1.142–2.952; P value = .012), and clinical stage (HR = 1.879; 95% CI = 1.102–3.203; P value = 0.021). Endocrine therapy (HR = 3.655; 95% CI = 1.084–12.324; P value = 0.037) and clinical stage (HR = 6.792; 95% CI = 1.672–28.345; P value = 0.009) were chosen as predictors of OS. Furthermore, we generated RS-OS and RS-DFS. According to the findings of Kaplan–Meier curves, patients who are classified as having a low risk have considerably longer DFS and OS durations than patients who are classified as having a high risk.

Conclusion

To generate nomograms that predicted DFS and OS, independent predictors of DFS in ER-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer patients were chosen. The nomograms successfully stratified patients into prognostic categories and worked well in both internal validation and external validation.

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Data availability

The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, No. 57, Changping Road, Jinping District, Shantou, 515041, Guangdong, China

    Xinming Song, Pintian Wang, Ruiling Feng, Mandika Chetry, Zewa Liu & Jing Lin

  2. Department of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Longhu People’s Hospital, Shantou, 515041, China

    E. Li, Xiaohua Wu & Shasha Liao

Authors
  1. Xinming Song
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  2. Pintian Wang
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  3. Ruiling Feng
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  4. Mandika Chetry
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  5. E. Li
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  6. Xiaohua Wu
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  8. Shasha Liao
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  9. Jing Lin
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Contributions

XS conceived and designed the study, and drafted the manuscript. PW, RF, and MC collected, analyzed, and interpreted the experimental data. EL, XW, ZL, SL, and JL revised the manuscript for important intellectual content. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jing Lin.

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Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethical approval

The study was approved by Ethical Committee of The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College and conducted in accordance with the ethical standards.

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Subjects signed the informed consent.

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This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.

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Song, X., Wang, P., Feng, R. et al. Prognostic model of ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer predicted by clinically relevant indicators. Clin Transl Oncol 26, 389–397 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12094-023-03316-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12094-023-03316-0

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