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Cancer incidence and mortality projections up to 2020 in Catalonia by means of Bayesian models

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Abstract

Purpose

To predict the burden of cancer in Catalonia by 2020 assessing changes in demography and cancer risk during 2010–2020.

Methods/patients

Data were obtained from Tarragona and Girona cancer registries and Catalan mortality registry. Population age distribution was obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics. Predicted cases in Catalonia were estimated through autoregressive Bayesian age-period-cohort models.

Results

There will be diagnosed 26,455 incident cases among men and 18,345 among women during 2020, which means an increase of 22.5 and 24.5 % comparing with the cancer incidence figures of 2010. In men, the increase of cases (22.5 %) can be partitioned in three components: 12 % due to ageing, 8 % due to increase in population size and 2 % due to cancer risk. In women, the role of each component was 9, 8 and 8 %, respectively. The increased risk is mainly expected to be observed in tobacco-related tumours among women and in colorectal and liver cancers among men. During 2010–2020 a mortality decline is expected in both sexes.

Conclusion

The expected increase of cancer incidence, mainly due to tobacco-related tumours in women and colorectal in men, reinforces the need to strengthen smoking prevention and the expansion of early detection of colorectal cancer in Catalonia.

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Acknowledgments

This study was conducted within the framework of the Spanish Cancer Research Network (RTICC) of the Carlos III Health Institute. Grants with reference number RD12/0036/0056; RD06/0020/0095; RD06/020/0089. This study was also conducted within the Research Group-Catalan Cancer Registry (SGR 2009–2013) from the Agència d’Ajuts Universitaris i de Recerca-AGAUR of the Catalan Government.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest related to the publication of this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Registre del Càncer de Catalunya, Pla Director d’Oncologia (GENCAT), IDIBELL, Hospital Duran i Reynals, Gran Via 199-203 1ª planta, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908, Barcelona, Spain

    J. Ribes, L. Esteban, R. Clèries & J. M. Borras

  2. Departament de Ciències Clíniques, Universitat de Barcelona, Campus de Bellvitge, L’Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain

    J. Ribes, R. Clèries & J. M. Borras

  3. Registre de Càncer de Tarragona, Fundació Lliga per a la Investigació i Prevenció del Càncer, Reus, Tarragona, Spain

    J. Galceran, A. Ameijide & J. Borras

  4. Departament de Medicina i Cirurgia, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Reus, Tarragona, Spain

    J. Borras

  5. Unitat d’Epidemiologia i Registre del Càncer de Girona (UERGG), Institut d’Investigació Biomèdica Girona Josep Trueta (IDIBGI), Girona, Spain

    R. Marcos-Gragera, M. L. Vilardell, M. Buxó & A. Izquierdo

  6. Institut Català d’Oncologia (ICO), Girona, Spain

    R. Marcos-Gragera, M. L. Vilardell, M. Buxó & A. Izquierdo

  7. Departament d’Infermeria, Universitat de Girona (UdG), Girona, Spain

    R. Marcos-Gragera & M. Buxó

  8. Departament de Salut (GENCAT), Registre de Mortalitat, Servei d’Informació i Estudis, Barcelona, Spain

    R. Gispert, A. Puigdefabregas & A. Freitas

Authors
  1. J. Ribes
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  2. L. Esteban
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  3. R. Clèries
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  4. J. Galceran
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  5. R. Marcos-Gragera
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  6. R. Gispert
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  7. A. Ameijide
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  8. M. L. Vilardell
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  9. J. Borras
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  10. A. Puigdefabregas
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  11. M. Buxó
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  12. A. Freitas
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  13. A. Izquierdo
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  14. J. M. Borras
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to J. Ribes.

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Ribes, J., Esteban, L., Clèries, R. et al. Cancer incidence and mortality projections up to 2020 in Catalonia by means of Bayesian models. Clin Transl Oncol 16, 714–724 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12094-013-1140-z

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12094-013-1140-z

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