Predicting water levels in ephemeral wetlands under climate change scenarios
- 50 Downloads
Ephemeral wetlands or kettle holes contain an often unique biodiversity of flora and fauna. In New Zealand, they can be an important breeding ground for iconic taonga species such as kakī/black stilt. Understanding the possible effects of climate change on the holes is a challenge as there is often limited information on the local hydrology, restricting the applicability of established hydrological models. We present a mathematical model that is parameterised using only recent rainfall data and water level. We assess the efficacy of our model to predict water levels under current climatic conditions and then explore the effects of a range of simple climate change scenarios. Our simple but effective modelling approach could be easily used in other situations where complex data and modelling expertise are unavailable.
KeywordsKettle hole Stochastic model Climate change
The authors thank the reviewers for useful comments and suggestions for improving the manuscript.
Compliance with ethical standards
Conflict of interest
The authors have no real or perceived conflicts of interest or other affiliations that may be perceived as having a conflict of interest with respect to the results of the paper.
- Ala-aho P, Rossi PM, Isokangas E, Kløve B (2015) Fully integrated surface–subsurface flow modelling of groundwater–lake interaction in an esker aquifer: model verification with stable isotopes and airborne thermal imaging. J Hydrol 522:391–406. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.054 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Buishand TA (1978) Some remarks on the use of daily rainfall models. J Hydrol 36.3–4:295–308Google Scholar
- Gambolati G (1996) Analytic element modelling of groundwater flow. EOS Trans Am Geophys Union 77(11):–103Google Scholar
- Ministry for the Environment (2018). Climate change projections for New Zealand: Atmosphere projections based on simulations from the IPCC Fifth Assessment, 2nd edn. Wellington, NZ: Ministry for the EnvironmentGoogle Scholar
- Tanentzap AJ, Lee WG, Monks A, Ladley K, Johnson PN, Rogers GM, … Hayman E (2014) Identifying pathways for managing multiple disturbances to limit plant invasions. J Appl Ecol 51(4):1015–1023. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12271