Abstract
The current manuscript presents the spatial analysis of the temperature trends during India’s Rabi and Kharif cropping seasons. We investigated the district-level temperature trends from 1966 to 2015 using Climate Research Unit data. All the 666 Indian districts showed significant upward temperature trends for the Rabi season. This upward trend was contributed by a significant rise in monthly temperatures during November (645 districts), December (664 districts), February (659 districts), and March (626 districts). January had the minimum number of Indian districts with a significant upward temperature trend during the Rabi season (322 districts). For the Kharif season, 640 Indian districts showed significant upward temperature trends. Significant rise in monthly temperatures during August (622 districts), September (595 districts), and October (627 districts) contributed to this upward trend. June (296 districts) and July (411 districts) had fewer districts with significant upward temperature trends. The results reflect a severe challenge of rising temperatures during India’s cropping seasons.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The datasets generated and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.
References
Alemayehu, A., Bewket, W.: Local climate variability and crop production in the central highlands of Ethiopia. Environ. Dev. 19, 36–48 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envdev.2016.06.002
Arora, M., Goel, N.K., Singh, P.: Evaluation of temperature trends over India/Evaluation de tendances de température en Inde. Hydrol. Sci. J. 50, 81–93 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1623/hysj.50.1.81.56330
Baldanov, A., Kiminami, L., Furuzawa, S.: Study on the relationships between rural and agricultural development and human resource development in Russian federation since 2000s. Lett. Spat. Resour. Sci. 12, 87–100 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-019-00228-y
Bhalla, G.S., Hazell, P., Kerr, J.: Prospects for India’s cereal supply and demand to 2020. IFPRI, Washington. http://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/125919/filename/125950.pdf (1999). Accessed 15 Sept 2021
Eticha, T.K., Rikiti, A.K., Abdisa, S.S., Ejeta, A.G.: Assessing effects of rainfall on farming activities as the predictor of climate changes in sadi Chanka district of Kellem Wolega, Oromia, Ethiopia. J. Water Clim. Change 12(7), 3297–3307 (2021). https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2021.363
Harris, I., Osborn, T.J., Jones, P., Lister, D.: Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset. Sci. Data 7, 109 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3
Hingane, L.S., Kumar, K.R., Murty, B.V.R.: Long-term trends of surface air temperature in India. J. Climatol. 5(5), 521–528 (1985). https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370050505
IPCC: Climate change 2014 synthesis report. Contribution of working groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 151. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf (2014). Accessed 20 Oct 2021
Jain, S.K., Kumar, V., Saharia, M.: Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in Northeast India. Int. J. Climatol. 33, 968–978 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3483
Jones, P.D., Lister, D.H., Osborn, T.J., et al.: Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations: an extensive revision and an update to 2010. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. (2012). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017139
Kothawale, D.R., Kumar, K.R.: On the recent changes in surface temperature trends over India. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32(18), L18714 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023528
Kumar, K.R., Kumar, K.K., Pant, G.B.: Diurnal asymmetry of surface temperature trends over India. Geophys. Res. Lett. 21(8), 677–680 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1029/94GL00007
Lobell, D.B., Schlenker, W., Costa-Roberts, J.: Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333, 616–620 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204531
Madhukar, A., Kumar, V., Dashora, K.: Spatial and temporal trends in the yields of three major crops: wheat, rice and maize in India. Int. J. Plant. Prod. 14, 187–207 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42106-019-00078-0
Madhukar, A., Dashora, K., Kumar, V.: Spatial Analysis of yield trends and impact of temperature for wheat crop across Indian districts. Int. J. Plant. Prod. 15, 325–335 (2021a). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42106-021-00140-w
Madhukar, A., Dashora, K., Kumar, V.: Investigating historical climatic impacts on wheat yield in India using a statistical modeling approach. Model. Earth Syst. Environ. 7, 1019–1027 (2021b). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-020-00932-5
Mondal, A., Khare, D., Kundu, S.: Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India. Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 122, 143–158 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1283-z
Nayak, S.: Land use and land cover change and their impact on temperature over central India. Lett. Spat. Res. Sci. 14, 129–140 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-021-00269-2
Nguyen, K.T., Ho, C.H.P., Trinh, D.C.: Risks and risk responses of rice farmers in the mekong delta. Vietnam. Lett. Spat. Resour. Sci (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-021-00290-5
Pingale, S.M., Khare, D., Jat, M.K., Adamowski, J.: Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan. India. Atmos. Res. 138, 73–90 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.10.024
Ross, R.S., Krishnamurti, T.N., Pattnaik, S., Pai, D.S.: Decadal surface temperature trends in India based on a new high-resolution data set. Sci. Rep. 8, 7452 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-25347-2
Subash, N., Sikka, A.K.: Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature and its relationship over India. Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 117, 449–462 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1015-9
Suryavanshi, S., Pandey, A., Chaube, U.C., Joshi, N.: Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of betwa basin, India. Theoret. Appl. Climatol. 117, 403–418 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-1013-y
United Nations Population Division: World Population Prospects the 2019 revision. Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York (2019). https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf
Wing, I.S., Cian, E.D., Mistry, M.N.: Global vulnerability of crop yields to climate change. J. Environ. Econ. Manag. 109, 102462 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102462
Acknowledgements
Anand Madhukar sincerely thanks the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT Delhi) for providing a research fellowship. Authors declare no conflict of interest or finance.
Funding
Anand Madhukar sincerely thanks the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IIT Delhi) for providing a research fellowship.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Formal analysis and investigation, Data Curation, Writing- Original draft preparation, Writing—review & editing, Visualization: [AM]; Validation, Funding acquisition: [VK]; Funding acquisition: [KD].
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
On behalf of all authors, the corresponding author states that there is no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Madhukar, A., Kumar, V. & Dashora, K. Spatial analysis of temperature trends during Rabi and Kharif seasons in India. Lett Spat Resour Sci 15, 451–467 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-022-00304-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12076-022-00304-w