Advertisement

Journal of Population Ageing

, Volume 11, Issue 3, pp 239–264 | Cite as

The Unavoidable Nature of Population Ageing and the Ageing-Driven End of Growth – an Update for New Zealand

  • Natalie Jackson
  • Michael P. Cameron
Article

Abstract

Despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary, many people still question the extent to which population ageing and the ageing-driven ending of growth will unfold more or less as projected. This is particularly so in New Zealand, where the population is still relatively youthful due to near-replacement fertility and many years of high per capita net migration gains. As elsewhere, however, the picture differs markedly at subnational level, with the populations of one-quarter of the nation’s 67 territorial authority areas (TAs) already (in 2017) having more than 20% aged 65+ years. Accompanying this trend, one-third of the nation’s TAs declined in population between 1996 and 2013, primarily because of net migration loss at young adult ages, but in the process accelerating their structural ageing. Taking a subnational approach, this paper explores the dynamics of population ageing across New Zealand’s TAs. We demonstrate that structural ageing is accelerating and that even excessively high levels of net international migration gain cannot be expected to appreciably reduce future structural ageing. We also show that over the period 2013–43 the majority of declining TAs will move from the old form of decline, caused by net migration loss exceeding natural increase, to a new form caused by the combined effects of net migration loss and natural decrease. The findings reinforce our central argument that the phenomenon of population ageing and the ageing-driven end of growth will not ‘go away’ and has urgent implications for matters such as rate-based local government infrastructure funding.

Keywords

Population ageing Subnational ageing Ageing-driven growth Natural decrease Depopulation 

Notes

Acknowledgements

Work on this paper was supported by a New Zealand Royal Society Marsden-Funded programme of research: The subnational mechanisms of the ending of population growth. Towards a theory of depopulation. (Contract MAU1308). Māori title and interpretation: Tai Timu Tangata: Taihoa e? (The ebbing of the human tide. What will it mean for the people?). We are most grateful to three anonymous reviewers for their insights and suggestions. Any errors remain our own.

References

  1. Alimi, O., Maré, D. C., & Poot, J. (2016). Income inequality in New Zealand regions. In Spoonley (Ed.), Rebooting the Regions. Why low or zero growth needn’t mean the end of prosperity (pp. 177–210). Albany: Massey University Press.Google Scholar
  2. Bryant, J. (2005). What can stochastic population projections contribute to policy analysis? New Zealand Population Review, 31(1), 111.Google Scholar
  3. Bucher, H., & Mai, R. (2005). Depopulation and its Consequences for the Regions of Europe. Report Prepared for the Council of Europe, Directorate General III–Social Cohesion. DG3/CAHP10(2005) 7 final.Google Scholar
  4. Cameron, M.P., & Poot, J. (2010). A Stochastic Sub-national Population Projection Methodology with an Application to the Waikato Region of New Zealand. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper No. 70. Hamilton: Population Studies Centre, University of Waikato.Google Scholar
  5. Cameron, M. P., & Poot, J. (2011). Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: The case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand. Journal of Population Research, 28(2–3), 245–265.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Cameron, M., Jackson, N.O., & Cochrane, W. (2014). Baseline and Stochastic Population Projections for the Territorial Local Authorities of the Waikato Region 2013–2063. Commissioned Report. Hamilton, New Zealand: National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato. 138 pages.Google Scholar
  7. Churchill, B., Denny, L., & Jackson, N. O. (2014). Thank god you’re here: The coming generation and their role in future proofing Australia from the challenges of population ageing. Australian Journal of Social Issues, 49(3), 373–392.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Coale, A. (1972). How a population ages or grows younger. In R. Freedman (Ed.), Population: The vital revolution (pp. 47–58). New York: Doubleday-Anchor.Google Scholar
  9. Cochrane, W., Grimes, A., McCann, P., & Poot, J. (2010) The Spatial Impact of Local Infrastructural Investment in New Zealand, Working Paper No. 10–12, Wellington, NZ: Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.Google Scholar
  10. Coleman, D., & Rowthorn, R. (2011). Who’s afraid of population decline? A critical examination of its consequences. Population and Development Review, 37, 217–248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Davoudi, S., Wishardt, M., & Strange, I. (2010). The ageing of Europe: Demographic scenarios of Europe’s futures. Futures, 42, 794–803.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Demeny P. (2009). Depopulation: concept, consequences, and counteractions. Presentation to Session 139, XXVI IUSSP Int. Pop. Conf. Marrakech; http://iussp2009.princeton.edu/papers/91784.
  13. Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development. (2016). Finding Assistance to Local Governments. http://regional.gov.au/local/assistance/index.aspx.
  14. DOTARS - Department of Transport and Regional Services. (2003). 2002–03 Report on the Operation of the Local Government (Financial Assistance) Act 1995. Canberra: National Office of Local Government. (www.dotrs.gov.au) (03/05/04).
  15. Eaqub, S. (2014). Growing apart. Regional Prosperity in New Zealand. Wellington: Bridgett Williams Books.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Easterlin, R. A. (1987). Birth and fortune. The impact of numbers on personal welfare (Second ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  17. Grimes, A., Apatov, E., Lutchman, L., & Robinson, A. (2016). Eighty years of urban development in New Zealand: Impacts of economic and natural factors. New Zealand Economic Papers, June. doi: 10.1080/00779954.2016.1193554
  18. Haartsen, T., & Venhorst, V. (2009). Planning for decline: Anticipating on population decline in the Netherlands. Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 101(2), 218–227.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  19. Hartevelt, J. (2012). Retaining pension age ‘not an option’. The Dominion Post. http://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/politics/6609437/Retaining-pension-age-not-an-option 21.03.2012.
  20. Jackson, N. O. (2004). Regional population ageing and local government funding. A tentative consideration of the issues. Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, 10(1), 77–103.Google Scholar
  21. Jackson, N. O. (2007). Population ageing in a nutshell: A phenomenon in four dimensions. People and Place, 15(2), 12–21.Google Scholar
  22. Jackson, N. O. (2014). Subnational depopulation in search of a theory – Towards a diagnostic framework. New Zealand Population Review, 40, 3–39.Google Scholar
  23. Jackson, N. O. (2016). Irresistible forces. Facing up to demographic change. Chapter 2. In Spoonley (Ed.), Rebooting the Regions. Why low or zero growth needn’t mean the end of prosperity (pp. 43–75). Albany: Massey University Press.Google Scholar
  24. Jackson, N.O., Cameron, M., & Cochrane, B. (2014a). 2014 Review of Demographic and Labour Force Projections for the Bay of Plenty Region for the Period 2013–2063. Commissioned Report. Hamilton, New Zealand: National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato. 60 pages + Appendices. http://www.smartgrowthbop.org.nz/research/integrated-planning-and-the-settlement-pattern/demographic-project.aspx.
  25. Jackson, N.O., Cameron, M., & Cochrane, B. (2014b). 2014 Review of Demographic and Labour Force Projections for the Waikato Future Proof Sub-Region for the Period 2013–2063. Commissioned Report. Hamilton: National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato. 115 pages + Appendices.Google Scholar
  26. Jackson, N.O., Brabyn, L., & Maré, D.C., (2016). New Zealand’s towns and rural centres 1976–2013 – Experimental components of growth. Working Paper 7, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis. University of Waikato, Hamilton.Google Scholar
  27. Jackson, N.O., Brabyn, L., Maré, D.C., Cameron, M., & Pool, I. (forthcoming). From ageing-driven growth towards the ending of growth. Subnational population trends in New Zealand, 1976–2043. Under Review. Google Scholar
  28. Johnson A. (2015) The impacts of our ageing population on regional New Zealand. Keynote Address to the New Zealand Population Association Biennial Conference, University of Waikato, Hamilton, June 29th. http://www.salvationarmy.org.nz/sites/default/files/uploads/20150701SPPUPopulation%20conference%20paper%20-%20June%202015.pdf
  29. Johnson, K. M., Field, L. M., & Poston Jr., D. L. (2015). More deaths than births: Subnational natural decrease in Europe and the United States. Population and Development Review, 41(4), 651–680.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Kippen, R. (1999). A note on ageing, immigration and the birthrate. People and Place, 7(2), 18–22.Google Scholar
  31. Kippen, R., & McDonald, P. (2000). Australia's population in 2000: The way we are and the ways we might have been. People and Place, 8(3), 10–17.Google Scholar
  32. Kippen, R., & McDonald, P. (2004). Can immigration be a substitute for low fertility? People and Place, 12(3), 18–27.Google Scholar
  33. Local Government New Zealand (2015) Local government funding review. A Discussion Paper.Google Scholar
  34. Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., & Sherbov, S. (2001). The end of world population growth. Nature, 412, 543–545.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Lutz, W., Sanderson, W., & Sherbov, S. (Eds.). (2004). The end of world population growth in the 21 st century. New challenges for human capital formation and sustainable development. London and Sterling: The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis/Earthscan.Google Scholar
  36. Martinez-Fernandez, C., Kubo, N., Noya, A., & Weyman, T. (2012). Demographic Change and Local Development: Shrinkage, Regeneration and Social Dynamics. OECD/LEED Working Paper Series https://community.oecd.org/servlet/JiveServlet/previewBody/39889-102-578584/Demographic_changes_report_FINAL.pdf; EU Cohesion Policy 2014–2020.
  37. Matanle, P., Rausch, A., & with the Shrinking Regions Group. (2011). Japan's shrinking regions in the 21st century: Contemporary responses to depopulation and socioeconomic decline. Amherst: Cambria Press.Google Scholar
  38. McDonald, P., & Kippen, R. (1999). The impact of immigration on the ageing of Australia’s population. Canberra: Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs.Google Scholar
  39. McMillan, R. (2016). The shrinkage pathway: managing regional depopulation. In Spoonley (Ed.), Rebooting the Regions. Why low or zero growth needn’t mean the end of prosperity (pp. 213–237). Albany: Massey University Press.Google Scholar
  40. Office of the Auditor General. (2014). Water and roads. Wellington: Funding and Management Challenges.Google Scholar
  41. Pool, I. (2003). Ageing, population waves, disordered cohorts and policy. In I. Pool, A. Dharmalingham, R. Bedford, N. Pole and J. Sceats (Eds.). Population and Social Policy. Special Issue of New Zealand Population Review, 29(1), 19–40.Google Scholar
  42. Pool, I. (2007). The baby boom in New Zealand and other western developed countries. Journal of Population Research, 24(2), 141–161.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  43. Pool, I., Baxendine, S., Cochrane, W., & Lindop, J. (2005–06). New Zealand’s Regions 1986–2001. Discussion Papers 44, 51–62. Hamilton: Population Studies Centre, University of Waikato.Google Scholar
  44. Pool, I., Wong, L. R., & Vilquin, E. (Eds.). (2006). Age-structural transitions: Challenges for development (pp. 3–19). Paris: CICRED.Google Scholar
  45. Pool, I., Dharmalingham, A., & Sceats, J. (2007). The Baby Boom Era, 1945–1973. Chapter 5. The New Zealand Family from 1840. A demographic history. Auckland: Auckland University Press.Google Scholar
  46. Spoonley, P. (Ed.). (2016). Rebooting the regions. Why low or zero growth needn’t mean the end of prosperity. Albany: Massey University Press.Google Scholar
  47. Statistics New Zealand (2014) Estimated Resident Subnational Population by Age and Sex, June 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013. Google Scholar
  48. Statistics New Zealand (2015a) Subnational population projections by age and sex, 2013(base)–2043. Google Scholar
  49. Statistics New Zealand (2015b) Subnational population projections – characteristics, 2013(base)–2043. Google Scholar
  50. Statistics New Zealand (2015c) Age-specific fertility rates by ethnicity, 2001, 2006, 2013.Google Scholar
  51. Statistics New Zealand (2015d) Subnational population projections – assumptions, 2013(base)–2043. Google Scholar
  52. Statistics New Zealand (various years) Estimated Resident Population by Age and Sex.Google Scholar
  53. United Nations Population Division. (2000). Replacement Migration. New York: United Nations Population Division.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.School of People, Environment and PlanningMassey UniversityAucklandNew Zealand
  2. 2.Department of EconomicsUniversity of WaikatoHamiltonNew Zealand
  3. 3.Research Associate, National Institute of Demographic and Economic AnalysisUniversity of WaikatoHamiltonNew Zealand

Personalised recommendations