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Future Population Developments in Europe. Is the Concept of Convergence Indisputable? Towards the Role of Geographical Thinking in Population Forecasting

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Abstract

The paper summarizes (not exhaustively) opinions on the potential convergence and divergence of population developments in general and within Europe particularly. There is an attempt to answer the question, whether the convergence concept is irrefutable or not. We discuss the major geographical factors of future convergence/divergence. We also present the empirical demographic projection of the EU countries, which we see as a boundary from the viewpoint of possible convergence and divergence. This empirical evidence is quite a unique view on the boundaries among which the population developments are likely to go on in coming decades. Instead of the probabilistic approaches, we just model the potential extremes (total equalization and current differentiation) using the deterministic approach. We demonstrate what differences would be if given assumptions were actual. The simpler this approach, the more readable for decision makers. Further, we explicitly stress and present the role of geographical thinking in the regional forecasting. We see the key role of geography mainly in measuring and shaping of future inequalities with respect to the national and regional population developments. If Europe is perceived as a multi-regional demographical system of countries, a systematic geographical approach is an essential base for quality forecasts. Since demographers do not often deal with purely geographical and spatially oriented methods, the role of geography is irreplaceable in the process.

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Funding

This study was funded by the Slovak Research and Development Agency (grant No. APVV-17-0079).

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  1. Department of Economic and Social Geography, Demography and Territorial Development, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Mlynská dolina, Bratislava, Slovak Republic

    Branislav Bleha

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  1. Branislav Bleha
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Correspondence to Branislav Bleha.

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Bleha, B. Future Population Developments in Europe. Is the Concept of Convergence Indisputable? Towards the Role of Geographical Thinking in Population Forecasting. Appl. Spatial Analysis 13, 851–873 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-019-09330-6

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