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Modelling Spatial Variation in the Determinants of Neighbourhood Family Migration in England with Geographically Weighted Regression

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Abstract

There have been many studies which have modelled internal migration in the UK. However, most of these have used data at geographical scales that conceal the majority of migration flows between neighbourhoods. They have also tended to use Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression or spatial interaction models. The latter are computationally unfeasible for migration flows between a large number of neighbourhoods. This paper uses a spatial modelling technique called Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to model family out-migration from neighbourhoods in England. GWR can take account of the spatial variation in the relationship between migration and its associated factors which are not accounted for using OLS. The variables included in the model are derived from theory and empirical research and include housing, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. The results show that the proportion of private renting, terraced housing, worklessness and non-domestic building land space in a neighbourhood each affect out-migration at varying levels across the country. For example, the effect of worklessness on out-migration is much stronger in neighbourhoods in the South East than the North of England. Therefore, all other things held constant, a successful intervention to reduce worklessness, initiated to discourage out-migration, would have a greater effect on out-migration in neighbourhoods in the South East compared with neighbourhoods in the North.

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Notes

  1. AICc is adjusted for sample size.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Alfonso Echazarra, Paul Norman and three anonymous referees for providing useful comments on an earlier version of this paper. We also acknowledge the ESRC PhD studentship upon which this paper is based. Finally, we would like to thank the Department for Education for access to the School Census.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester, Humanities Bridgeford Street, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK

    Stephen Jivraj, Mark Brown & Nissa Finney

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  1. Stephen Jivraj
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  2. Mark Brown
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  3. Nissa Finney
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Correspondence to Stephen Jivraj.

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Jivraj, S., Brown, M. & Finney, N. Modelling Spatial Variation in the Determinants of Neighbourhood Family Migration in England with Geographically Weighted Regression. Appl. Spatial Analysis 6, 285–304 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-013-9087-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-013-9087-6

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