Abstract
The ambitious goal of limiting end-of-century temperature rise relative to pre-industry level below 1.5 °C will offer both great challenges and opportunities in terms of curbing energy use and CO2 emissions for the building sector of China. This paper simulates the long-term trend (2010–2100) of energy consumption and CO2 emissions of the building sector in China, within the framework of 1.5 °C climate target, with application of GCAM-TU model. The impacts of energy efficiency improvement and carbon policy on energy savings and emission reductions are also explored. The results show that direct CO2 emissions from the building sector would have to peak around 2030, and cumulative emissions during 2015–2100 would be limited to 48.2 Gt CO2 in the 1.5 °C-consistent scenario. The share of electricity in building’s energy consumption by the mid-century would be 8.9% higher than that under 2 °C scenario. Accelerating efficiency improvement would create significant energy savings relative to the reference scenario, especially in space heating and cooling. However, the emission reductions required by the 1.5 °C temperature increase limit cannot be effectively achieved without the collaboration of economic-wide carbon policy, which would play important role in the deep decarbonization of the energy system. Finally, it is suggested that policy makers should further strengthen technological efficiency improvement in the building sector to help enhance energy performance, while carefully devising prospective carbon policies to facilitate fast and early mitigation.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Chen, W., Yin, X., & Zhang, H. (2016). Towards low carbon development in China: a comparison of national and global models. Climatic Change, 136(1), 95–108.
Deason, J. & Hobbs, A. (2011). Codes to cleaner buildings: effectiveness of U.S. building energy codes. Cimate Policy Initiative.
Energy Conservation Center (ECC). (2012). EDMC handbook of energy & economic statistics in Japan.
Eom, J., Clarke, L., Kim, S. H., Kyle, P., & Patel, P. (2012). China’s building energy demand: long-term implications from a detailed assessment. Energy, 46(1), 405–419.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2014). Climate change 2007: synthesis report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/. Accessed 16 Feb 2016.
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2011). Energy balances of non-OECD countries 2011. Paris: OECD Publishing http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/energy/energy-balances-of-non-oecd-countries-2011_energy_bal_non-oecd-2011-en. Accessed 17 Mar 2017.
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2012). World energy outlook 2012. Paris: IEA.
International Energy Agency (IEA). (2015). Energy technology perspectives 2015. Paris: OECD/IEA Available from www.iea.org/etp/etp2015. Accessed 10 Aug 2017.
International Energy Agency (IEA) and The Tsinghua University Building Energy Research Center (BERC). (2017). District energy system in China: options for optimisation and diversification. Available from https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/DistrictEnergySystemsinChina.pdf.
ISOVER. (2011). Higher quality of life—lower heating costs: up to 90% energy savings by renovation. A technical guide to the thermal renovation of old buildings. Available from https://www.isover.hr/sites/isover.hr/files/assets/documents/rensolut.pdf. Accessed 8 Nov 2017.
Levine, M., de la Rue du Can, S., Zheng, N., Williams, C., Amann, J., & Staniaszek, D. (2012). Building energy efficiency best practice policies and policy packages. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and Global Buildings Performance Network (GBPN). http://eetd.lbl.gov/sites/all/files/publications/gbpn-finaloct-2012.pdf. Accessed 5 Aug 2017.
Li, J., & Shui, B. (2015). A comprehensive analysis of building energy efficiency policies in China: status quo and development perspective. Journal of Cleaner Production, 90(Supplement C), 326–344.
Lü, X., Lu, T., Kibert, C. J., & Viljanen, M. (2015). Modeling and forecasting energy consumption for heterogeneous buildings using a physical–statistical approach. Applied Energy, 144, 261–275.
McNeil, M. A., Feng, W., de la Rue du Can, S., Khanna, N. Z., Ke, J., & Zhou, N. (2016). Energy efficiency outlook in China’s urban buildings sector through 2030. Energy Policy, 97, 532–539.
Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD). (2012). Building energy efficiency strategic plan for the twelfth five-year period. Beijing, China.
Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD). (2017). Building energy conservation and green building development in the 13th Five-Year-Plan. Beijing, China.
Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China (MOHURD). (1986). Design standard for energy efficiency of residential buildings in severe cold and cold zones. JGJ 26-1986.
Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China (MOHURD). (2010). Design standard for energy efficiency of residential buildings in hot summer and cold winter zone. JGJ134-2010.
Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China (MOHURD). (2012). Existing residential building energy conservation guide. JGJ/T119-2012.
Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China (MOHURD). (2013). Design standard for energy efficiency of rural residential buildings. GB/T 50824-2013.
Pan, X., Chen, W., Clarke, L. E., Wang, L., & Liu, G. (2017). China’s energy system transformation towards the 2 °C goal: implications of different effort-sharing principles. Energy Policy, 103, 116–126.
Peng, C., Yan, D., Guo, S., Hu, S., & Jiang, Y. (2015). Building energy use in China: ceiling and scenario. Energy and Buildings, 102, 307–316.
Rogelj, J., Luderer, G., Pietzcker, R. C., Kriegler, E., Schaeffer, M., Krey, V., & Riahi, K. (2015). Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5°C. Nature Climate Change, 5, 519–527.
Royapoor, M., & Roskilly, T. (2015). Building model calibration using energy and environmental data. Energy and Buildings, 94, 109–120.
Schleussner, C. F., Rogelj, J., Schaeffer, M., Lissner, T., Licker, R., Fischer, E. M., Knutti, R., Levermann, A., Frieler, K., & Hare, W. (2016). Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal. Nature Climate Change, 6(9), 827–835.
Shi, J., Chen, W., & Yin, X. (2016). Modelling building’s decarbonization with application of China TIMES model. Applied Energy, 162, 1303–1312.
Wang, L., Patel, P. L., Yu, S., Liu, B., Mcleod, J., Clarke, L. E., et al. (2016). Win–win strategies to promote air pollutant control policies and non-fossil energy target regulation in China. Applied Energy, 163, 244–253.
Wang, L., Chen, W., Zhang, H., & Ma, D. (2017). Dynamic equity carbon permit allocation scheme to limit global warming to two degrees. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 22(4), 609–628.
Wang, H., Chen, W., & Shi, J. (2018a). Low carbon transition of global building sector under 2- and 1.5-degree targets. Applied Energy, 222, 148–157.
Wang, L., Chen, W., Pan, X., Li, N., Wang, H., Li, D., & Chen, H. (2018b). Scale and benefit of global carbon markets under the 2 °C goal: integrated modeling and an effort-sharing platform. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-018-9781-4.
Xiao, H., Wei, Q., & Wang, H. (2014). Marginal abatement cost and carbon reduction potential outlook of key energy efficiency technologies in China’s building sector to 2030. Energy Policy, 69(Supplement C), 92–105.
Yin, X., Chen, W., Eom, J., Clarke, L. E., Kim, S. H., Patel, P. L., Yu, S., & Kyle, G. P. (2015). China’s transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective. Energy Policy, 82(1), 233–248.
Yu, S., Eom, J., Evans, M., & Clarke, L. (2014a). A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China. Energy Policy, 67, 626–639.
Yu, S., Eom, J., Zhou, Y., Evans, M., & Clarke, L. (2014b). Scenarios of building energy demand for China with a detailed regional representation. Energy, 67, 284–297.
Zhou, N., & Lin, J. (2008). The reality and future scenarios of commercial building energy consumption in China. Energy and Buildings, 40(12), 2121–2127.
Zhou, N., Fridley, D., McNeil, M. A., Zheng, N., Ke, J., & Levine, M. (2011). China’s energy and carbon emissions outlook. LBNL-4472E. Berkeley: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.
Funding
The authors would like to thank the support from National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 71690243, 51861135102) and Ministry of Science and Technology (2012BAC20B01).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, H., Wang, L. & Chen, W. Modeling on building sector’s carbon mitigation in China to achieve the 1.5 °C climate target. Energy Efficiency 12, 483–496 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-018-9687-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-018-9687-8