Abstract
There are large gaps in energy consumption data and consequently in the estimates of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in Kazakhstan. This study provides the first comprehensive review of energy consumption trends in Kazakhstan, discusses several important discrepancies in energy statistics and presents an improved versions of Energy Balances, developed using additional data. The results indicate that Kazakhstan’s energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 30% from 1.14 to 0.8 toe/thousand 2005USD between 2000 and 2014. To understand factors influencing this decline, the change in energy intensity of GDP was decomposed using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I method. The upstream sector (mainly oil and gas) played the most important role in the observed GDP energy intensity change. Although the share of this sector in total GDP increased, causing an increase in energy intensity due to inter-sectoral structural effects, the consequences were counteracted by a twofold decline in the sector’s energy intensity, resulting in a net decrease. On the contrary, the power and heat, transport and household sectors saw an increase in energy intensity between 2000 and 2014. The results clearly demonstrate that there is an urgent need for policies and measures to be put in place in the power and heat, household and transport sectors, to support renewable energy development, increase buildings’ energy efficiencies, replace inefficient stoves and improve heating systems and encourage changes in public transportation systems. Furthermore, improving energy statistics and setting appropriate sectoral energy intensity reduction targets are crucial for achieving real efficiency improvements in the economy.
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Notes
Energy intensity of GDP is the ratio between the total energy consumption of a country and its GDP. It provides a measure of the amount of energy required to generate 1 unit of GDP (World Energy Council 2016).
IEA reports indicate that the energy intensity of Kazakhstan in 2014 was 0.41 toe/thousand 2010USD (IEA 2017).
Total consumption with reference approach is calculated based on the energy supplied to a country. Sectoral approaches are based on fuel combustion statistics (IPCC 2006).
Stationary fuel combustion sources are devices that combust solid, liquid or gaseous fuel, generally for the purposes of producing electricity, generating steam or providing useful heat or energy for industrial, commercial, or institutional use, or for reducing the volume of waste by removing combustible matter (EPA 2014).
The Integrated Market allocation Energy flow optimisation model System (TIMES).
Statistical differences are defined as deliveries to final consumption + use for transformation processes + consumption by energy industry own use + losses − domestic supply − transfers.
Commodity SWAP—exchange of commodities. Under SWAP agreements, the Russian company ‘Gazprom’, supplies gas to some Northern and Southern regions of Kazakhstan and in return, gas is supplied to Russia from Western Kazakhstan.
The efficiency of electricity and heat generation was calculated by dividing the total electricity and heat production by the total fuel input for power and heat plants.
Most of the power plants and heat plants were installed while Kazakhstan was part of the Soviet Union, and there have been no significant changes in the efficiencies of electricity and heat generation.
In some years, negative statistical differences were reported to the IEA.
In the IEA energy balance for Kazakhstan, large amounts of gas (up to 17,900 ktoe) were reported as consumed by energy industries for their own use. If these amounts were consumed for electricity and heat generation, they should have been included in the ‘power plants’ section of the energy balances (IEA 2007).
GDP was calculated as a sum of sectoral value added and converted to USD using 2005 prices. Taxes and subsidies were not accounted for.
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Acknowledgements
This research was funded under the target programme no. 0115РК03041 ‘Research and development in the fields of energy efficiency and energy saving, renewable energy sources and environmental protection for years 2014–2016’ from the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan. PhD Scholarship from the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan is acknowledged. We express our gratitude to the Committee of Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company, Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan and Information-analytical Centre of oil and gas for providing the data. We are grateful for valuable comments from Dr. Kanat Baigarin and Rocco De Miglio. We also would like to sincerely thank GianCarlo Tosato for his valuable advice on energy balances. We thank Dr. Stephen Hall for contributing to the structure and form of the paper.
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Appendices
Appendix I. Reclassified energy balances of Kazakhstan
Appendix 2
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Kerimray, A., Kolyagin, I. & Suleimenov, B. Analysis of the energy intensity of Kazakhstan: from data compilation to decomposition analysis. Energy Efficiency 11, 315–335 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-017-9565-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-017-9565-9