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Modelling the potential for industrial energy efficiency in IEA’s World Energy Outlook

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Abstract

The industry sector accounts for more than a third of global final energy consumption and nearly the same share of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Compared with other sectors, however, industrial energy modelling has received less attention due to the variety of sub-sectors, impact of energy-saving measures on product qualities and statistical problems. This paper explains how the industry sector is modelled in the World Energy Outlook and presents energy-saving opportunities from energy efficiency in the sector. Using the World Energy Model, a partial equilibrium model, it is found that exploiting the economic potential of energy efficiency can reduce energy demand growth in industry from 1.5 to 1.1 % per year on average over the period 2010–2035. Savings arise from faster adoption of more efficient technologies, phasing out older facilities, process change and system optimisation, including electric motor-driven systems. Significant barriers to the implementation of energy efficiency are the requirement for short payback periods and concerns that change could interrupt production or affect reliability. In order to realise the potential energy savings, policy makers need to address these issues by improving mechanisms for capacity building, energy management and financing.

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Notes

  1. This section is largely based on the model documentation of the World Energy Model (IEA 2013a).

  2. The Hodrick-Prescott filter separates the cyclical component of a time series from the underlying trend.

  3. CO2 emissions savings from energy efficiency alone are not enough in terms of contribution from the industry sector to limit the global temperature increase to 2 °C, but need to be complemented by the use of low-carbon energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Directorate of Global Energy Economics, International Energy Agency, 9, rue de la Fédération, 75739, Paris Cedex 15, France

    Fabian Kesicki & Akira Yanagisawa

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  1. Fabian Kesicki
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  2. Akira Yanagisawa
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Correspondence to Fabian Kesicki.

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Kesicki, F., Yanagisawa, A. Modelling the potential for industrial energy efficiency in IEA’s World Energy Outlook. Energy Efficiency 8, 155–169 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-014-9273-7

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