LEAPs and Bounds—an Energy Demand and Constraint Optimised Model of the Irish Energy System

Abstract

This paper builds a model of energy demand and supply for Ireland with a focus on evaluating, and providing insights for, energy efficiency policies. The demand-side comprises sectoral sub-models, with a detailed bottom–up approach used for the transport and residential sectors and a top–down approach used for the industry and services sectors. The supply side uses the linear programming optimisation features of the Open Source Energy Modelling System applied to electricity generation to calculate the least-cost solution. This paper presents the first national level model developed within the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning software to combine detailed end-use analysis on the demand side with a cost-minimising optimisation approach for modelling the electricity generation sector. Through three scenarios over the period 2009–2020, the model examines the aggregate impact on energy demand of a selection of current and proposed energy efficiency policies. In 2020, energy demand in the energy efficiency scenario is 8.6 % lower than the reference scenario and 11.1 % lower in the energy efficiency + scenario.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    LEAP writes an input file for OSeMOSYS, runs it and imports its results back into LEAP. Currently, the LEAP input file only contains the aggregated electricity demand as the main driver for the optimization within OSeMOSYS.

  2. 2.

    https://ndber.seai.ie/BERResearchTool/ber/search.aspx.

  3. 3.

    Approximately 7 % of the total residential dwelling stock.

  4. 4.

    The weights based on the GVA split of the two parts of the sub-sector.

  5. 5.

    Approximately 16.6 Mt CO2.

  6. 6.

    The Irish transmission system operator.

  7. 7.

    2012.0.0.43.

  8. 8.

    12 GB RAM, Intel Xeon 3.0 GHz processor, Microsoft Windows 7 64 bit.

  9. 9.

    New building control legislation will come into force on 1st March 2014.

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Acknowledgements

The authors acknowledge funding provided by SEAI to build an early version of the model described in this paper (Clancy et al. 2010). The lead author acknowledges a PhD scholarship from Bord Gais Networks, which also facilitated this work. Thanks to Victoria Clark of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), and Jim Scheer and Shay Kavanagh of SEAI.

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Correspondence to Fionn Rogan.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 7 Fuel prices (source: (IEA 2008; Browne et al. 2011))
Table 8 2011 IEA fuel prices (source: IEA 2011)
Table 9 Electricity generation results in 2020 for reference scenario for (IEA 2008, 2011) fuel prices (units: GWh) (source: authors)
Table 10 Electricity generation results in 2020 for energy efficiency scenario for three electricity dispatches runs (units: TWh) (source: Ireland LEAP model output)
Table 11 Electricity generation results in 2020 for energy efficiency + scenario for three electricity dispatches runs (units: TWh) (source: Ireland LEAP model output)
Table 12 Electricity generation results in 2020 for energy efficiency + scenario for three electricity dispatches runs (units: € million) (source: Ireland LEAP model output)
Table 13 Key macro-economic indicators (source: (Bergin et al. 2010))
Table 14 Numbers of dwellings retrofitted for each year for reference scenario and both retrofit scenarios (source: author's assumptions, see ‘Residential sector’ under ‘Reference scenario’ and ‘Residential sector’ under ‘Energy efficiency scenario’)
Fig. 5
figure5

Tree structure for all sectors

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Rogan, F., Cahill, C.J., Daly, H.E. et al. LEAPs and Bounds—an Energy Demand and Constraint Optimised Model of the Irish Energy System. Energy Efficiency 7, 441–466 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-013-9231-9

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Keywords

  • Energy efficiency policies
  • Top–down modelling
  • Bottom–up modelling
  • LEAP
  • OSeMOSYS
  • Ireland