Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

The savings of energy saving: interactions between energy supply and demand-side options—quantification for Portugal

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Energy Efficiency Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Reducing demand by increasing end-use energy efficiency on the demand side of energy systems may also have advantages in reducing fossil dependency and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the supply side. This paper addresses interactions between energy supply- and demand-side policies, by estimating the impact of measures addressing end-use energy efficiency and small-scale renewables uses in terms of (1) avoided large-scale electricity generation capacity, (2) final energy consumption, (3) share of renewables in final energy and (4) reduction of GHG emissions. The Portuguese energy system is used as a case study. The TIMES_PT bottom-up model was used to generate four scenarios covering the period up to 2020, corresponding to different levels of efficiency of equipment in buildings, transport and industry. In the current policy scenario, the deployment of end-use equipment follows the 2000–2005 trends and the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan targets. In the efficient scenarios, all types of equipment can be replaced by more efficient ones. Results show that aggressive demand-side options for the industry and buildings sector and the small-scale use of renewables can remove the need for the increase in large-scale renewable electricity capacity by 4.7 GW currently discussed by policy makers. Although these measures reduce total final energy by only 0–2 %, this represents reductions of 11–14 % in the commercial sector, with savings in total energy system costs of approximately 3,000 million euros2000—roughly equivalent to 2 % of the 2010 Portuguese GDP. The cost-effectiveness of policy measures should guide choices between supply shifts and demand reduction. Such balanced policy development can lead to substantial cost reductions in climate and energy policy.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. Some reasons for this preference of policy makers are: greater familiarity with and reliability of centralised technologies; easier access to more reliable investment funding for such technologies; easier acceptance of the technologies by key institutions such as planning bodies, and the vested interests and lobbying power of various stakeholder groups (WCD 2000). Savings are mostly more diffuse, with more complex behavioural mechanisms involved, and with plain inertia also playing a role (Jaffe and Stavins 1994; Schleich 2009; de Groot et al. 2001; Sorrell et al. 2004).

  2. An example is the Portuguese Portaria no. 765/2010 of August 20th 2010, which defines an annual monetary incentive in euros per installed MW applicable to plants above 50 MW to ensure the availability of plants for dispatch by the Transmission System Operator and to provide an “incentive to investment”. This law applies to both existing and new fossil and RES power plants, with a view to promoting security of supply, thus counteracting the 2020 National Energy Strategy (ENE2020) policy objectives of promoting RES and reducing GHG emissions. The value of the incentive ranges from 20 000 to 43 000 euros/MW per year depending on the age of the power plant and the reserve capacity of the electric system.

  3. Although other criteria are relevant to evaluate policies and policy instruments and measures, such as effectiveness, efficiency, feasibility and equity, this paper only focuses on cost-effectiveness, for the sake of simplicity.

  4. The Portuguese NEEAP lists a comprehensive set of policy instruments to promote end-use energy efficiency, including small-scale RES technologies like solar thermal panels. However, with the exception of energy certificates for buildings and a tax on inefficient lamps, the measures in most cases do not include quantitative indicators for their implementation (only a quantification of their results in terms of energy savings) and thus cannot be translated into the model.

  5. Acronym for The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM system. TIMES is the successor of two older ETSAP bottom-up energy models: Markal—MARKet Allocation Model and EFOM—Energy Flow Optimisation Model, developed in the 1980s.

  6. Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme

  7. http://www.ecn.nl/nl/units/ps/themas/hernieuwbare-energie/projecten/res2020/

  8. http://realisegrid.rse-web.it/

  9. http://www.enerdata.fr/enerdatauk/tools/Model_POLES.html

  10. Assuming investment costs of 440 million euros2000/GW in 2020 for the new gas-fuelled CCGT power plants. These costs were validated in 2008 and 2010 with Portuguese electricity companies and TSO.

  11. Strictly speaking, the operation and maintenance costs of the onshore wind plants should also be considered here, but since these represent a minor fraction of the total electricity cost (1 % of investment for fixed costs) they were left out for the sake of simplicity.

  12. More information on the NEEDS project can be found at http://www.needs-project.org/. EFDA is the European Fusion Development Agreement. More information on EFDA can be found at: http://www.efda.org/fusion/.

  13. We have considered a per capita electricity consumption for 2005 of 4.157 GWh/1,000 inhabitants and have estimated the electricity generated in 2020 with the installed capacity in Table 3 (plus oil, coal and gas plants existing in 2010) and the literature-derived AF presented in Table 4. We did not include CHP here.

  14. In 2011, Endesa and GALP no longer had plans in place to build the CCGT plants at Lavos and Sines.

Abbreviations

AF:

Availability factor

CHP:

Combined heat and power

CCGT:

Combined cycle gas turbines

CUR:

Current policy scenario

DEM:

Demand focus scenario

ENE2020:

National Energy Strategy 2020

GDP:

Gross domestic product

GHG:

Greenhouse gas emissions

IEA:

International Energy Agency

NEEAP:

National Energy Efficiency Action Plan

PNAC:

National Climate Change Programme

PV:

Photovoltaic

RES:

Renewable energy sources

RES-e:

Renewable electricity

S&D:

Supply and demand focus scenario

SUP:

Supply focus scenario

References

  • ADENE (2010). [NEEAP—2009 Implementation report]. PNAEE—Relatório Nacional de Execução 2009. June 2010. Portuguese Energy Agency, Lisbon, Portugal (in Portuguese). http://www.adene.pt/pt-pt/PNAEE/Documents/Relatrio_Impactos_PNAEE_2009_1_6_2010_2.pdf. Accessed 9 June 2011.

  • APA. (2006). PNAC. [National Climate Change Programme]. Programa Nacional para as Alterações Climáticas. Lisbon: Portuguese Environment Agency (in Portuguese).

    Google Scholar 

  • APA (2011). Portuguese National Inventory Report on Greenhouse Gases 1990–2009. Portuguese Environment Agency. Lisbon, Portugal. [http://www.apambiente.pt/politicasambiente/Ar/InventarioNacional/Documents/NIR_20110415_v20110515.pdf]. Accessed 7 June 2011.

  • de Groot, H., Verhoef, E., & Nijkamp, P. (2001). Energy savings by firms: decision-making, barriers and policies. Energy Economics, 23, 717–740.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • DGEG (2010). National Action Plan for Renewable Energy Within the Directive 2009/28/EC—Final version. (Plano Nacional de Acção Para as Energias Renováveis ao Abrigo da Directiva 2009/28/CE—Versão Final). Portuguese Republic. October 2010, Lisbon, Portugal.

  • EEA (2004). Energy subsidies in the European Union: a brief overview. Technical Report No. 1/2004. Copenhagen: European Environment Agency. http://reports.eea.eu.int/technical_report_2004_1/en. Accessed 10 June 2011.

  • ENE2020 (2010). Estratégia Nacional para a Energia 2020 (ENE2020). Resolution of the Council of Ministers nr.29/2010 of 15th April. DR 1st series, No 73. 15th April 2010

  • EREC, Greenpeace (2010). Energy revolution—a sustainable world energy outlook. 3rd edition June 2010, pp. 260. http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/climate/2010/fullreport.pdf. Accessed 7 September 2011.

  • EU Commission COM (2008a). 16 final. 2008. Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council COM(2008) 16 final amending Directive 2003/87/EC so as to improve and extend the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading system of the Community.

  • EU Commission COM (2008b). 19 final. 2008. Proposal for a Directive of the European Parliament and of the Council COM(2008) 19 final on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources.

  • EU Commission COM (2008c). 30. 2008. 2020 by 2020—Europe’s climate change opportunity, Communication from the European Commission to European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, COM(2008) 30.

  • EU Decision COM (2008). 17. EU Decision of the European Parliament and of the Council COM (2008) 17 on the effort of Member States to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet the Community’s greenhouse gas emission reduction commitments up to 2020.

  • Fleiter, T., Worrell, E., & Heichhammer, W. (2011). Barriers to energy efficiency in industrial bottom-up energy demand models—a review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15(6), 3099–3111.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fortes, P., Simões, S., Cleto, J., Seixas, J. (2008). Energy and other goods demand for Portugal until 2020—Methodology (Procura de energia e outros bens para Portugal para o horizonte até 2020—Metodologia), Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Science and Technology College of the New University of Lisbon. March 2008, Monte de Caparica, Portugal (in Portuguese).

  • GEOTA, FAPAS, LPN, Quercus, CEAI, Aldeia, COAGRET, Flamingo, SPEA, MCLT (2011). Memorandum: the Portuguese dam program: economic, social and environmental disaster. Lisbon, Portugal. http://www.geota.pt/xfiles/scContentDeployer_pt/docs/Doc2212.pdf. Accessed 2 September 2011.

  • Gonçalves, H., Joyce, A., & Silva, L. (Eds.). (2002a). Renewable energy in Portugal forum—a contribution towards the energy and environmental policy objectives—geothermal (Fórum Energias Renováveis em Portugal - Uma contribuição para os Objectivos de política Energética e Ambiental—Geotermia). Lisbon: ADENE/INETI.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gonçalves, H., Joyce, A., & Silva, L. (Eds.). (2002b). Renewable energy in portugal forum—a contribution towards the energy and environmental policy objectives—solar. (Fórum Energias Renováveis em Portugal—Uma contribuição para os Objectivos de política Energética e Ambiental—Solar). Lisbon: ADENE/INETI.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gonçalves, H., Joyce, A., & Silva, L. (Eds.). (2002c). Renewable energy in portugal forum—a contribution towards the energy and environmental policy objectives—biofuels (Fórum Energias Renováveis em Portugal—Uma contribuição para os Objectivos de política Energética e Ambiental—Biocombustíveis). Lisbon: ADENE/INETI.

    Google Scholar 

  • GPPAA- MADRP. (2005). Biomass and renewable energy in agriculture, fisheries and forestry—situation in 2005 (Biomassa e Energias Renováveis na Agricultura Pescas e Florestas—Ponto da Situação em 2005). Lisbon: Portuguese Ministry of Agriculture Rural Development and Fisheries.

    Google Scholar 

  • IEA. (2001). Toward a Sustainable Energy Future. OECD/IEA, Paris: International Energy Agency.

  • IEA. (2007). World Energy Outlook 2007—China and India insights. Paris: International Energy Agency.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • INAG, DGEG and REN (2007). [National Programme for Dams with High Hydroelectric Potential] Programa Nacional de Barragens com Elevado Potencial Hidroeléctrico (PNBEPH). National Water Institute, General Directorate for Energy and Geology and National Transmission Operator. November 2007. Lisbon, Portugal (in Portuguese).

  • Jaffe, A., & Stavins, R. (1994). The energy-efficiency gap—what does it mean? Energy Policy, 22(10), 804–810.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krichene, N. (2002). World crude oil and natural gas: a demand and supply model. Energy Economics, 24(6), 557–576.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lenard, T. (2009). Renewable electricity standards, energy efficiency, and cost-effective climate-change policy. The Electricity Journal, 22(8), 55–64.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Loulou, R., Remme, U., Kanudia, A., Lehtila, A. and Goldstein, G (2005a). Documentation for the TIMES model—part I. Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme. [www.etsap.org/tools.htm]. Accessed 20 May 2010.

  • Loulou, R., Remme, U., Kanudia, A., Lehtila, A. and Goldstein, G (2005b). Documentation for the TIMES model—part II. Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme. [www.etsap.org/tools.htm]. Accessed 20 May 2010.

  • MEI (2007a). Renewable energy in Portugal. Ministry of Economy and Innovation, Lisbon, Portugal. http://www.min-economia.pt/document/Energias_Renov_PT.pdf. Accessed 8 January 2009.

  • MEI (2007b). Portuguese energy policy—energy and climate change. Ministry of Economy and Innovation, Lisbon, Portugal. http://www.min-economia.pt/document/policy.pdf. Accessed 8 January 2009.

  • OECD. (2005). Environmentally harmful subsidies: challenges for reform. Paris: OECD.

    Google Scholar 

  • RCM 1 (2008). Resolução do Conselhos de Ministros 1/2008 relativa ao PNAC 2006 e Novas Metas 2007 (Resolution of Council of Ministers 1/2008 regarding the National Climate Change Programme 2006 and New Targets 2007). DR 1st series, no. 3. (in Portuguese)

  • RCM 80 (2008). Resolução do Conselhos de Ministros 80/2008 relativa ao Plano Nacional de Acção para a Eficiência Energética (Resolution of Council of Ministers 80/2008 regarding the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency). DR 1st series, no. 97. (in Portuguese)

  • REN and ISR (2005). Characterization of Sustained Integration Solutions of High Intermittent Production Levels (CISEPI: Caracterização de Soluções de Integração Sustentada de Elevados Níveis de Produção Intermitente). ISR, Coimbra, Portugal (in Portuguese).

  • REN (2005). Investment Plan for the National Transmission Grid 2006–2011. (Plano de investimentos na rede nacional transporte 2006–2011). REN, Lisbon, Portugal (in Portuguese). www.ren.pt. Accessed 8 January 2009.

  • REN and ISR (2007). Energy efficiency and sustainable integration of special regimen production (EFIPRE—Eficiência energética e integração sustentada de PRE). ISR, Coimbra, Portugal (in Portuguese).

  • REN (2008). PDIRT—Development and Investment Plan of the Transmission Grid 2009–2014 (2019) [PDIRT- Plano de Desenvolvimento e Investimento na Rede de Transporte 2009–2014 (2019)]. REN, Lisbon, Portugal (in Portuguese). www.ren.pt. Accessed 8 January 2009.

  • Ribeiro, J. Félix, Dias, A. M., Lobo, A., Nunes, C., Lopes, E., Ponte da Silva, G., Escária, S (2008a). Scenarios for the Portuguese Economy in the Post-Kyoto Period (Cenários para a Economia Portuguesa no Período Pós-Quioto). DPP—Department of Prospective and Planning and International Relations of the Portuguese Ministry of the Environment. March 2008. Lisbon, Portugal (in Portuguese).

  • Russ P., Wiesenthal, T. Van Regemorter, D., Císcar, J. (2007). Global Climate Policy Scenarios for 2030 and beyond—analysis of greenhouse gases emission reduction pathway scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 models. October 2007. JRC Reference Reports. Report EUR 23032 EN.

  • Sá da Costa, A. APREN in van de Toorn, G (2007). EU TradeWind Work Package 2: Wind Power Scenarios. W.P.2.1:Wind Power Capacity Data Collection. 27 April 2007

  • Schleich, J. (2009). Barriers to energy efficiency: a comparison across the German commercial and services sector. Ecological Economics, 68(7), 2150–2159.

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  • Schüle, R., Arens, C., Becker, D., Fülöp, O (2009). Policy Learning and Innovation in National Energy Eficiency Action Plans. European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Summer Study 2009. 1–6 June 2009. La Colle-sur-Loup, France.

  • Schüle, R., Höfele, V., Thomas, S., Becker, D (2011). Improving the National Energy Efficiency Strategies in the EU Framework—Findings from Energy Efficiency Watch Analysis March 2011. Wuppertal Institut and Ecofys Germany. EEW-Publication Nr. 1/2011. [http://www.energy-efficiency-watch.org/fileadmin/eew_documents/EEW2/Improving_National_Energy_Efficiency_Strategies_in_the_EU_Framework_Findings_from_EEW1.pdf]. Accessed 25 October 2011.

  • Seixas, J., Simões, S., Cleto, J., Fortes, P., Barroso, E., Alves, B., Dinis, R., Pisco, F., Faria, P., Finote, S (2008). Final Report: Portugal Climate 2020—Impact Evaluation of the EU Energy-Climate Policy Package for Portugal (Relatório Final: Portugal Clima 2020—Avaliação do Impacto da Proposta Energia-Clima da Comissão Europeia para Portugal), Evalue, S.A. and Science and Technology College of the New University of Lisbon. November 2008, Lisbon, Portugal (in Portuguese).

  • Seixas, J., Simões, S., Fortes, P., Dias, L., Gouveia, J., Alves, B., Maurício, B (2010). New Energy Technologies: RoadMap Portugal 2050 - Analysis of new national energy technologies e impact scenarios on the national energy system - D3: Competitiveness Assessment of New Energy Technologies. Policy Report for the Portuguese Innovation Fund for Renewable Energy of the Ministry of Economy. Evalue, S.A. and Science and Technology College of the New University of Lisbon. December 2010, Lisbon, Portugal (in Portuguese). http://www.evalue.pt/conteudo.php?mid=3010101212&id=4821. Accessed 17 September 2011.

  • SETIS (2011). SETIS Energy Calculator. Institute for Energy and Transport, Joint Research Centre of The European Commission. https://odin.jrc.ec.europa.eu/SETIS/SETIS1.html#. Accessed 20 December 2011.

  • Simões, S., Cleto, J., Fortes, P., Seixas, J., & Huppes, G. (2008). Cost of energy and environmental policy in Portuguese CO2 abatement—scenario analysis to 2020. Energy Policy, 36(9), 3598–3611.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sorrell, S., O’Malley, E., Schleich, J., & Scott, S. (2004). The economics of energy efficiency: barriers to cost-effective investment (p. 368). Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd.

    Google Scholar 

  • van Regemorter, D., Kanudia, A (2006). Projections of the demand of energy services for NEEDS. Unpublished working paper from the NEEDS project.

  • Wade, J., Guertler, P., Croft, D., Sunderland, L (2011). National energy efficiency and energy saving targets—further detail on Member States. ECEEE—European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy. Pp. 42. May 24th 2011. http://www.eceee.org/Policy/Targets/Targets_Country_Specific_Information.pdf. Accessed 13 September 2011.

  • WCD. (2000). Dams and development—a new framework for decision making. The report of the World Commission on Dams. London: Elsevier.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wuppertal Institut and Ecofys (2009). Energy Efficiency Watch (EEW)—final report on the Evaluation of National Energy Efficiency Action Plans (NEEAPs), Wuppertal, Berlin

  • WWF (2009). To dam or not to dam? Five years on from the World Commission on Dams. WWF Global Freshwater Programme, The Netherlands, pp 15. http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/footprint/water/dams_initiative/. Accessed 15 September 2011.

  • WWF, ECOFYS, OMA (2011). WWF—The Energy Report. Pp 256. http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/footprint/climate_carbon_energy/energy_solutions/renewable_energy/sustainable_energy_report/. Accessed 20 October 2011.

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation for funding a PhD scholarship supporting the present work (SFRH/BD/14060/2003). The TIMES_PT model was implemented within the European Union research project NEEDS—New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability. The inputs of its research partners contributed significantly to the present work.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. CENSE—Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2829-516, Caparica, Portugal

    Sofia Simoes, Júlia Seixas & Patrícia Fortes

  2. CML-Institute of Environmental Sciences of the Leiden University, P.O. Box 9518, 2300 RA, Leiden, The Netherlands

    Sofia Simoes & Gjalt Huppes

  3. Currently at the European Commission—Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, P.O. Box 2, NL-1755ZG, Petten, The Netherlands

    Sofia Simoes

Authors
  1. Sofia Simoes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Júlia Seixas
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Patrícia Fortes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Gjalt Huppes
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sofia Simoes.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 11

Table 11 National primary energy potentials
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Simoes, S., Seixas, J., Fortes, P. et al. The savings of energy saving: interactions between energy supply and demand-side options—quantification for Portugal. Energy Efficiency 7, 179–201 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-013-9217-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-013-9217-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation