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The expected dates of resource-limited maxima in the global production of oil and gas

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Abstract

Combining geological knowledge with proven plus probable (“2P”) oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited maxima of conventional oil production. The data show that the maximum of global conventional oil production is imminent. Many analysts who rely on only proven (“1P”) oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion. But proven oil reserves data contain no information about the true size of discoveries, being variously underreported, overreported, and not reported. In addition to conventional oil, the world contains large quantities of nonconventional oil. However, many current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the nonconventional oils will not come onstream fast enough to offset the decline in conventional oil production.

The paper concludes that the likely dates of hydrocarbon production maxima are:

Non-Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries

Conventional oil

Now–2015

Global

Conventional oil

2010–2020

Global

All oil

2015–2025

Global

Oil + gas

2015–2030

Global

Gas

2020–2040

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Visiting Research Fellow, Department of Cybernetics, The University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6AY, UK

    R. W. Bentley

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  1. R. W. Bentley
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Bentley, R.W. The expected dates of resource-limited maxima in the global production of oil and gas. Energy Efficiency 3, 115–122 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-009-9063-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12053-009-9063-9

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