Abstract
Understanding local-scale climate change is vital to developing adaptive strategies in the face of the century-old river of global warming posing a threat to humanity. This study focuses on assessing temperature and rainfall trends in Beni City, using monthly and yearly (1990–2020) weather station data. Climate variability was analysed using the standardised variable index, and rainfall concentration patterns were highlighted using the precipitation concentration index (PCI). The climate trends were analysed by using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator. The findings indicated that the Tmin is 18.82±0.62°C, and Tmax is 28.22±0.75°C, resulting in a mean temperature of 23.52±0.57°C. The annual and seasonal temperature trend analysis indicated that a significant warming trend was observed in both Tmin and Tmax. Beni City's precipitation trends also showed a mean annual rainfall of 1988.38±416.59 mm, with significant year-to-year variations. Annual rainfall analysis exhibited a slight upward trend; meanwhile, the seasonal trend analysis revealed an increase in rainfall during Mar–Apr–May (MAM) and Aug–Sep–Oct–Nov (ASON) seasons with roughly no discernible trend during Dec–Jan–Feb (DJF), and Jun–Jul (JJ) seasons. Overall, annual and seasonal analyses of specific temperature and rainfall patterns have shown pronounced warming and increased rainfall in the study area.
Research highlights
-
The study reveals significant trends in temperature and rainfall in Beni city, Democratic Republic of Congo, over a 31-year period (1990–2020).
-
Both minimum and maximum temperatures show significant warming trends, with the most recent decade witnessing substantial increases in maximum temperatures.
-
Rainfall patterns exhibit variations, with a slight upward trend in annual rainfall, although the 1990s experienced a notable decrease in precipitation.
-
Monthly analyses highlight specific temperature and rainfall patterns with some months experiencing pronounced warming and increased rainfall.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adeyeri O E and Ishola K A 2021 Variability and trends of actual evapotranspiration over West Africa: The role of environmental drivers; Agric. for. Meteorol. 308–309 108574, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108574.
Adler R F, Gu G, Sapiano M, Wang J J and Huffman G J 2017 Global precipitation: Means, variations and trends during the satellite era (1979–2014); Surv. Geophys. 38 679–699, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-017-9416-4.
Ahmadi F, Nazeri Tahroudi M, Mirabbasi R and Kumar R 2022 Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation and temperature concentration using PCI and TCI: A case study of Khuzestan Province, Iran; Theor. Appl. Climatol. 149(1–2) 743–760, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04077-6.
Alimonti G, Mariani L, Prodi F and Ricci R A 2022 A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming; Eur. Phys. J. Plus 137 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02243-9.
Al-Ghussain L 2019 Global warming: Review on driving forces and mitigation; Environ. Prog. Sustain. Energy 38(1) 13–21, https://doi.org/10.1002/ep.13041.
Al-Mashagbah A and Al-Farajat M 2013 Assessment of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall data using kriging, Mann–Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimates in Jordan from 1980 to 2007; Res. J. Environ. Earth Sci. 5(10) 611–618, https://doi.org/10.19026/rjees.5.5691.
Anderson R, Bayer P E and Edwards D 2020 Climate change and the need for agricultural adaptation; Curr. Opin. Plant Biol. 56 197–202, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pbi.2019.12.006.
Barrelas J, Ren Q and Pereira C 2021 Implications of climate change in the implementation of maintenance planning and use of building inspection systems; J. Build. Eng. 40 102777, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobe.2021.102777.
Beck C, Grieser J, Kottek M, Rubel F and Rudolf B 2005 Characterising global climate change by means of Köppen climate classification; Klimastatusbericht 51 139–149.
Bharat A L and Venkatesh B 2022 Precipitation concentration index and rainfall trend analysis for south-western districts of Karnataka, India; Indian J. Ecol. 49(2) 462–469, https://doi.org/10.55362/IJE/2022/3546.
Bojinski S, Verstraete M, Peterson T C, Richter C, Simmons A and Zemp M 2014 The concept of essential climate variables in support of climate research, applications, and policy; Bull. Am. Meterol. Soc. 95(9) 1431–1443, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00047.1.
Bweya M N, Musavandalo M C and Sahani M 2019 Spatio-temporal analysis dynamics of the forest landscape of the Beni region (North Kivu, DRC); Geo. Eco. Trop. 43(1) 171–184.
Byakatonda J, Parida B P, Kenabatho P K and Moalafhi D B 2018 Analysis of rainfall and temperature time series to detect long-term climatic trends and variability over semi-arid Botswana; J. Earth Syst. Sci. 127 1–20, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-018-0926-3.
Choi D, Gao Z and Jiang W 2020 Attention to global warming; Rev. Financ. Stud. 33(3) 1112–1145, https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3180045.
Costa F R, Schietti J, Stark S C and Smith M N 2023 The other side of tropical forest drought: Do shallow water table regions of Amazonia act as large-scale hydrological refugia from drought; New Phytol. 23(3) 714–733, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.17914.
Desmet K and Rossi-Hansberg E 2015 On the spatial economic impact of global warming; Urban Econ. 88 16–37, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2015.04.004.
Diffenbaugh N S and Burke M 2019 Global warming has increased global economic inequality; Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 116(20) 9808–9813, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1816020116.
Dochev I, Gorzalka P, Weiler V, Schmiedt J E, Linkiewicz M, Eicker U and Schröter B 2020 Calculating urban heat demands: An analysis of two modelling approaches and remote sensing for input data and validation; Energy Build. 226 110378, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2020.110378.
Duran-Encalada J A, Paucar-Caceres A, Bandala E R and Wright G H 2017 The impact of global climate change on water quantity and quality: A system dynamics approach to the US–Mexican transborder region; Eur. J. Oper. Res. 256(2) 567–581, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.016.
El Kasri J, Lahmili A, Soussi H, Jaouda I and Bentaher M 2021 Trend analysis of meteorological variables: Rainfall and temperature; Civ. Eng. J. 7(11) 1868–1879, https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2021-03091765.
Elsayad H M and Afify A A 2015 Temporal analysis of precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in an arid region: A case study in Wadi El Natron, Egypt; Theor. Appl. Climatol. 122 665–681.
Fang Y P, Liu Y W and Yan X 2015 Meat production sensitivity and adaptation to precipitation concentration index during the growing season of grassland: Insights from rural households; Agric. for. Meteorol. 201 51–60, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.11.001.
Faye C 2019 Changement climatiques observés sur le littoral sénégalais (Région de Dakar) depuis 1960: Etude de la variabilité des tendances sur les températures et la pluviométrie; Revue Nature Et Technologie 11(02) 65–78.
Gadedjisso-Tossou A, Adjegan K I and Kablan A K M 2020 Rainfall and temperature trend analysis by Mann–Kendall test and significance for rainfed cereal yields in Northern Togo; Sci 3(1) 1–23, https://doi.org/10.3390/sci3010017.
Gocic M and Trajkovic S 2013 Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia; Glob. Planet. Change 100 172–182, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.10.014.
Joshi G S and Makhasana P 2020 Assessment of seasonal climate transference and regional influential linkages to land cover–Investigation in a river basin; J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 199(2) 105209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jastp.2020.105209.
Hallouz F, Meddi M, Mahé G, Ali Rahmani S, Karahacane H and Brahimi S 2020 Analysis of meteorological drought sequences at various timescales in semi-arid climate: Case of the Cheliff watershed (northwest of Algeria); Arabian J. Geosci. 13 1–15.
Kapiri M M, Mahamba J A, Amani R K, Mulondi G K and Sahani W M 2023 Drought from the 1970s to the 1990s and its influence in the tropical city of Beni, eastern DR Congo; Indonesian J. Social Environ. Issues 4(1) 45–58, https://doi.org/10.47540/ijsei.v4i1.817.
Kouman K D, Kabo-bah A T, Kouadio B H and Akpoti K 2022 Spatio-temporal trends of precipitation and temperature extremes across the North-East Region of Cote d’Ivoire over the period 1981–2020; Climate 10(5) 74, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050074.
Läderach P, Ramirez-Villegas J, Prager S D, Osorio D, Krendelsberger A, Zougmoré R B and Pacillo G 2021 The importance of food systems in a climate crisis for peace and security in the Sahel; Int. Rev. Red Cross. 103(198) 995–1028, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1816383122000170.
Liebmann B, Bladé I, Funk C, Allured D, Quan X W, Hoerling M and Thiaw W M 2017 Climatology and interannual variability of boreal spring wet season precipitation in the Eastern Horn of Africa and implications for its recent decline; J. Clim. 30(10) 3867–3886, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0452.1.
Llano M P 2018 Spatial distribution of the daily rainfall concentration index in Argentina: Comparison with other countries; Theor. Appl. Climatol. 133(4) 997–1007, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2236-0.
Mavhura E, Manyena B and Collins A E 2017 An approach for measuring social vulnerability in context: The case of flood hazards in Muzarabani district, Zimbabwe; Geoforum 86 103–117, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoforum.2017.09.008.
Mishra N, Khare D, Shukla R and Kumar K 2014 Trend analysis of air temperature time series by Mann–Kendall test – a case study of Upper Ganga Canal Command (1901–2002); Curr. J. Appl. Sci. Technol. 4(28) 4066–4082, https://doi.org/10.9734/BJAST/2014/8650.
Mondal K, Akhter M A and Mallik M 2020 Temporal trend analysis of historical climatic data at Northeastern Hilly Region of Bangladesh using Mann–Kendall Test; J. Eng. Sci. 11(2) 19–25, https://doi.org/10.3329/jes.v11i2.50894.
Mufwaya C K and Muchuru S 2016 Spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall in a data-scarce region: Case of Kinshasa and Bas-Congo in Democratic Republic of Congo; Hydrol. Sci. J. 61(11) 2024–2032, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2015.1080828.
Neumayer E and Plümper T 2007 The gendered nature of natural disasters: The impact of catastrophic events on the gender gap in life expectancy, 1981–2002; Ann. Am. Assoc. Geogr. 97(3) 551–566, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.2007.00563.x.
Nguimalet C R and Orange D 2013 Dynamique hydrologique récente de l’Oubangui à Bangui (Centrafrique): Impacts anthropiques ou climatiques; Geo. Eco. Trop. 37(1) 101–112, http://www.geoecotrop.be/uploads/publications/pub_371_07.pdf.
Nyikadzino B, Chitakira M and Muchuru S 2020 Rainfall and runoff trend analysis in the Limpopo river basin using the Mann-Kendall statistic; Phys. Chem. Earth. 117(6) 102870, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2020.102870.
O’Connor B, Bojinski S, Röösli C and Schaepman M E 2020 Monitoring global changes in biodiversity and climate essential as ecological crisis intensifies; Ecol. Inform. 55(12) 101033, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.101033.
Petković D, Gocic M, Trajkovic S, Milovančević M and Šević D 2017 Precipitation concentration index management by adaptive neuro-fuzzy methodology; Clim. Change 141(4) 655–669, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1907-2.
Plummer S, Lecomte P and Doherty M 2017 The ESA climate change initiative (CCI): A European contribution to the generation of the global climate observing system; Remote Sens. Environ. 203 2–8, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.014.
Preethi B, Sabin T P, Adedoyin J A and Ashok K 2015 Impacts of the ENSO Modoki and other tropical Indo-Pacific climate-drivers on African rainfall; Sci. Rep. 5(1) 16653, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep16653.
Salarian M, Larijani S, Banejad H, Heydari M and Ghadim H B 2022 Trend analysis of water flow on Neka and Tajan rivers using parametric and non-parametric tests; J. Hungarian Meteorol. Service 126(3) 387–402, https://doi.org/10.28974/idojaras.2022.3.7.
Shafiq M U, Rasool R, Ahmed P and Dimri A P 2019 Temperature and precipitation trends in Kashmir Valley, North Western Himalayas; Theor. Appl. Climatol. 135 293–304, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2377-9.
Sharma B, Tiwari S, Kumawat K C and Cardinale M 2023 Nano-biofertilizers as bio-emerging strategies for sustainable agriculture development: Potentiality and their limitations; Sci. Total Environ. 860(1) 160476, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160476.
Shiel J 2009 Practical greenhouse gas reduction strategies for the existing building stock; Archit. Sci. Rev. 52(4) 270–278, https://doi.org/10.3763/asre.2009.0070.
Sukristiyonubowo S and Kodoatie R J 2020 Long-term trend analysis of daily temperature and rainfall in Surabaya, Indonesia; Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 132 445–457.
Wallace J M, Held I M, Thompson D W, Trenberth K E and Walsh J E 2014 Global warming and winter weather; Science 343 729–730, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.343.6172.729.
Wang X, Pang G and Yang M 2018 Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau during recent decades: A review based on observations and simulations; Int. J. Climatol. 38(3) 1116–1131, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5246.
Watanabe T, Cullmann J, Pathak C S, Turunen M, Emami K, Ghinassi G and Siddiqi Y 2018 Management of climatic extremes with focus on floods and droughts in agriculture; Irrig. Drain. 67(1) 29–42, https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.2204.
Wells M L, Trainer V L, Smayda T J, Karlson B S, Trick C G, Kudela R M and Cochlan W P 2015 Harmful algal blooms and climate change: Learning from the past and present to forecast the future; Harmful Algae 49(2) 68–93, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2015.07.009.
Westerling A L, Turner M G, Smithwick E A, Romme W H and Ryan M G 2011 Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century; Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 108(32) 13,165–13,170, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.111019910.
Zakeri S, Samkhaniani A, Adeli S and Nikraftar Z 2019 Evaluation of long-term trend of different drought indices using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator over Iran; Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci. 42 1141–1145, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W18-1141-2019.
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the ENRA Company via its director for making the necessary data available for the present study. The authors also thank the anonymous reviewers for their critical and constructive comments, which helped to bring the manuscript to its present form.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
PVR: Conception and design of the study, drafting the manuscript, and analysis and interpretation of data. SAB: Data processing, planning and editing of the data. CA and AZ: Data analysis and editing of the manuscript. AG: Conceptualisation, supervision, interpretation of data, and editing of the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Additional information
Communicated by Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay
Supplementary material pertaining to this article is available on the Journal of Earth System Science website (http://www.ias.ac.in/Journals/Journal_of_Earth_System_Science).
Supplementary Information
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Posite, V.R., Ahana, B.S., Abdelbaki, C. et al. Analysis of temperature and rainfall trends in Beni City, Democratic Republic of Congo. J Earth Syst Sci 133, 102 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-024-02308-0
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-024-02308-0