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CMIP6 projections of spatiotemporal changes in rainfall and droughts over India

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Abstract

This study has been undertaken to find out the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall and droughts over India in two future periods (2020–2059 and 2060–2099) under two SSP (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. Here we have selected the four most suitable Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs) to project rainfall and drought over India. We have found that rainfall over India is on the rise under considered periods and emission scenarios with few spatial departures. The rainfall is higher under higher warming. Central India, particularly Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, shows an increase in rainfall in all emission scenarios. This region also shows a higher increase in rainfall variability. The rainfall variability is found to be the maximum in the northeast Himalayan region. In the future, drought frequency does not show any appreciable change but drought duration changes and shows spatial variations. An increase in drought duration is observed over northwestern parts of India, particularly over Gujarat, Rajasthan, parts of MP, UP and Haryana.

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Acknowledgement

We gratefully acknowledge IMD for encouraging us to undertake this work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Meteorological Watch Office Kolkata, India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Kolkata, 700 052, India

    Pravat R Naskar

  2. Department of Geophysics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, 221 005, India

    Gyan P Singh

  3. India Meteorological Department, DGM HQ, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, 110 003, India

    Dushmanta R Pattanaik & Shobhit Katyar

Authors
  1. Pravat R Naskar
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  2. Gyan P Singh
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  3. Dushmanta R Pattanaik
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  4. Shobhit Katyar
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Contributions

Pravat R Naskar: Concept, analysis and writing; Gyan P Singh: Writing; Dushmanta R Pattanaik: Writing; Shobhit Katyar: Formatting.

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Correspondence to Pravat R Naskar.

Additional information

Communicated by Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay

Corresponding editor: Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay

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Naskar, P.R., Singh, G.P., Pattanaik, D.R. et al. CMIP6 projections of spatiotemporal changes in rainfall and droughts over India. J Earth Syst Sci 132, 123 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02143-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-023-02143-9

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