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Improved skill of NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM-G) in forecasting tropical cyclones over NIO during 2015–2019

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Abstract

Operational forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) track and intensity in the India Meteorological Department (IMD) relies more and more on the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model guidance from national and international agencies particularly, on the medium range (24–120 h). Any improvement in TC forecasts by the NWP models enhances the operational forecaster's confidence and capability. The real-time information from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) global NWP model (NCUM-G) is routinely used by operational forecasters at IMD as model guidance. The present study documents the improved skill of NCUM-G in forecasting the North Indian Ocean (NIO) TCs during 2015–2019, based on a collection of 1810 forecasts involving 22 TC cases. The study highlights three significant changes in the modelling system during the recent five years, namely (i) increased grid resolution from 17 to 12 km, (ii) use of hybrid 4D-Var data assimilation (DA), and (iii) increased volume of assimilated data. The study results indicate a consistent improvement in the NCUM-G model forecasts during the pre-monsoon (April–May, AM) and post-monsoon (October–December, OND) TC seasons. In addition to a 44% reduction in the initial position error, the study also reports a statistically significant decrease in the direct position error (DPE) and error in the intensity forecast, resulting in a forecast gain of 24 hrs. Comparing NWP models with IMDs official track error shows that NCUM-G and ECMWF model forecasts feature lower DPE than IMD in 2019, particularly at higher (96, 108, and 120 h) lead times.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to India Meteorological Department for providing the best track data and official forecast errors for the cyclones. The authors acknowledge ECMWF, NCEP, and UKMO for using their NWP model TC track errors used in the study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), A-50, Institutional Area Phase-II, Sec-62, Noida, 201 307, India

    Sushant Kumar, Anumeha Dube, Sumit Kumar, S Indira Rani, Saji Mohandas, Raghavendra Ashrit, John P George & Ashis K Mitra

  2. Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS), Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore, Singapore

    Kuldeep Sharma

  3. India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Noida, India

    S Karunasagar

Authors
  1. Sushant Kumar
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  2. Anumeha Dube
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  3. Sumit Kumar
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  4. S Indira Rani
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  5. Kuldeep Sharma
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  6. S Karunasagar
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  8. Raghavendra Ashrit
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  9. John P George
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  10. Ashis K Mitra
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Contributions

Sushant Kumar: Conceptualization, model verification, data analysis and manuscript. Anumeha Dube: Data analysis, visualization and manuscript. Sumit Kumar and Indira Rani: Modelling, data assimilation and manuscript. Kuldeep Sharma and S Karunasagar: Model verification and visualization. Saji Mohandas: Model information and manuscript. Raghavendra Ashrit, John P George and Ashish K Mitra: Supervision and review of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Sushant Kumar.

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Communicated by Kavirajan Rajendran

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Kumar, S., Dube, A., Kumar, S. et al. Improved skill of NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM-G) in forecasting tropical cyclones over NIO during 2015–2019. J Earth Syst Sci 131, 114 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-022-01869-2

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