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Comparative analysis of vital parameters of extremely severe cyclonic storms Phailin and Hudhud over the Bay of Bengal

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  • The damage potential and losses were higher in case of tropical cyclone (TC) Phailin due to higher intensity, rapid intensification, longer duration in very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS)/extremely severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) stage, lower rate of decay after landfall and larger size as compared to TC Hudhud.

  • The introduction of Doppler Weather Radars in recent years and improved modelling capabilities blended with subjective value addition through synoptic guidance enabled IMD to accurately monitor the track, intensity and landfall characteristics of these TCs.

  • Though, the track forecast difficulty was higher in case of Hudhud as compared to Phailin, the errors were less in Hudhud and its forecast was more skillful due to improvements in numerical weather prediction (NWP) modelling in 2014. However, the intensity forecast difficulty was higher in case of Phailin as compared to Hudhud due to rapid intensification which could not be predicted by the dynamical and statistical models of India Meteorological Department (IMD).

  • There is scope to improve NWP models and hence the operational intensity forecast especially rapid intensification forecasting.

Abstract

Two extremely severe cyclonic storms (ESCSs) Phailin and Hudhud developed over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during October 2013 and 2014 and crossed the east coast of India near Gopalpur (Odisha) and Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh) at 1700 UTC of 12th October 2013 and 0700 UTC of 12th October 2014, respectively, causing immense loss of property. Considering the devastating effect associated with the typical characteristics of the two tropical cyclones (TCs) and their occurrence during same period of the post-monsoon season, a study has been undertaken to compare the vital parameters including location, movement, intensity, size, etc., of these TCs. The results of this study can be utilized for better understanding and prediction of structural characteristics of TCs over the north Indian Ocean (NIO) and hence the associated adverse weather like heavy rain, gale wind and storm surge. The higher intensity, higher rate of intensification, longer duration in very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) or higher stage, lower rate of decay after landfall and larger size were the typical characteristics in the case of TC Phailin leading to its higher damage potential in terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and hence higher loss in terms of power dissipation index (PDI) as compared to TC Hudhud.

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Figure 1

(Source: IMD eAtlas (https://www.rmcchennaieatlas.tn.nic.in/login.aspx?ReturnUrl=%2f)).

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(Source: https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/index.asp.)

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Acknowledgements

We are grateful to the reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions, which helped in improving the manuscript. We acknowledge the support provided by the Cyclone Warning Division of IMD in the collection of data for preparation of this manuscript.

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  1. India Meteorological Department, Mausam Bhavan, Lodi Road, New Delhi, India

    M Mohapatra & M Sharma

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  1. M Mohapatra
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Contributions

M Mohapatra: Conceptualization, overall technical guidance, methodology, data analysis and supervision and M Sharma: Data collection, writing, formatting, preparation of tables and figures.

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Correspondence to M Sharma.

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Communicated by Kavirajan Rajendran

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Mohapatra, M., Sharma, M. Comparative analysis of vital parameters of extremely severe cyclonic storms Phailin and Hudhud over the Bay of Bengal. J Earth Syst Sci 130, 233 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-021-01719-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-021-01719-7

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