Abstract
This study focuses on the impact of varying landfall timing in a tidal cycle (i.e., the spring-neap phase) and varying wind speeds (i.e., cyclone intensities) on the surge tides for the tropical cyclone Fani in the Bay of Bengal using a hydrodynamic finite element-based 2D (ADvanced CIRCulation) ADCIRC model setup. For atmospheric forcing, the Cyclostrophic Symmetric Holland wind Model (H80) and Generalized Asymmetric Holland Model (GAHM) model are used to estimate the wind fields from the IMD best track data. Comparisons with in-situ winds from moored buoys within the proximity of cyclone track showed that H80 simulated winds underestimate the observed winds in terms of magnitude followed by a mismatch in the wind directions as well. In contrast, the GAHM simulated wind fields, which are statistically better in terms of both magnitude and direction are used for different wind experiments. To understand the impact of the varying landfall timing and varying wind speeds on storm surges, a series of sensitivity experiments have been performed during a tidal cycle with modulated high and low winds along the cyclone track. The experiments considering varying landfall timing during a tidal cycle indicate the strongest surge tides (1.99 m) during the spring high tide phase, whereas the lowest surge tide of 0.94 m is observed during spring low tide. However, the surge tide at the actual time of landfall is 1.20 m which is during the transition from low tide to high tide. On the other hand, the combined impact of wind speeds and varying landfall timing indicated the strongest surge tides of 2.25 m during high wind conditions associated with spring high tides. In contrast, the surge tides decrease significantly during low tide and low wind conditions. This study confirms the importance of both winds and landfall timing on the storm surges, which will be crucial to forecast the storm surges associated with the tropical cyclones.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ali M M, Jagadeesh P V and Jain S 2007 Effects of eddies on Bay of Bengal cyclone intensity; EOS 88(8) 93–95, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007EO080001.
Bennett V C and Mulligan R P 2017 Evaluation of surface wind fields for prediction of directional ocean wave spectra during hurricane sandy; Coast. Eng. 125 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.04.003.
Bhaskaran P K, Gayathri R, Murty P L, Bonthu S and Sen D A 2014 Numerical study of coastal inundation and its validation for Thane cyclone in the Bay of Bengal; Coast. Eng. 83 108–118, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.005.
Bhaskaran P K, Nayak S, Bonthu S R, Murty P N and Sen D 2013 Performance and validation of a coupled parallel ADCIRC–SWAN model for THANE cyclone in the Bay of Bengal; Environ. Fluid Mech. 13(6) 601–623, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2006.07.021.
Dawson C, Westerink J J, Feyen J C and Pothina D 2006 Continuous, discontinuous and coupled discontinuous–continuous Galerkin finite element methods for the shallow water equations; Int. J. Numer. Methods Fluids 52(1) 63–88, https://doi.org/10.1002/fld.1156.
Dube S K, Sinha P C and Rao A D 1982 The effect of coastal geometry on the location of peak surge; Mausam 33(4) 445–450.
Gao J 2018 On the surface wind stress for storm surge modeling. Doctoral dissertation, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Gao J, Luettich R and Fleming J 2013 Development and initial evaluation of a generalized asymmetric tropical cyclone vortex model in ADCIRC; In: Proceedings of the ADCIRC Users Group Meeting, Vicksburg, MS, USA (Vol. 16).
Garratt J R 1977 Review of drag coefficients over oceans and continents; Mon. Weather Rev. 105(7) 915–929.
Gayathri R, Bhaskaran P K and Sen D 2015 Numerical study on storm surge and associated coastal inundation for 2009 AILA Cyclone in the head Bay of Bengal; Aquat Procedia 4 404–411, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aqpro.2015.02.054.
Harper B A, Hardy T, Mason L, Bode L, Young I and Nielsen P 2001 Queensland climate change and community vulnerability to tropical cyclones: Ocean hazards assessment –Stage 1; Report prepared by Systems Engineering Australia in conjunction with James Cook University Marine Modelling Unit, Queensland Government.
Holland G J 1980 An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes; Mon. Weather Rev. 108(8) 1212–1218, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1212:AAMOTW>2.0.CO;2.
IMD Report 2019 Extremely severe cyclonic storm Fani over east central equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal, India Meteorological Department.
Jena B K, Sivakholundu K M and Rajkumar J A 2018 Description of tidal propagation in Hooghly estuary using numerical and analytical solutions; Ocean Eng. 169 38–48, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2018.09.009.
Johns B, Sinha P C, Dube S K, Mohanty U C and Rao A D 1983 Simulation of storm surges using a three-dimensional numerical model: An application to the 1977 Andhra cyclone; Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc. 109(459) 211–224, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49710945910.
Kolar R L, Gray W G, Westerink J J and Luettich R A Jr 1994 Shallow water modeling in spherical coordinates: Equation formulation, numerical implementation, and application; J. Hydraul. Res. 32(1) 3–24, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221689409498786.
Kolar R L, Westerink J J, Cantekin M E and Blain C A 1994 Aspects of nonlinear simulations using shallow-water models based on the wave continuity equation; Comput. Fluids 23(3) 523–538, https://doi.org/10.1016/0045-7930(94)90017-5.
Le Provost C, Lyard F, Molines J M, Genco M L and Rabilloud F 1998 A hydrodynamic ocean tide model improved by assimilating a satellite altimeter-derived data set; J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 103(C3) 5513–5529, https://doi.org/10.1029/97JC01733.
Li J, Hou Y, Mo D, Liu Q and Zhang Y 2019 Influence of tropical cyclone intensity and size on storm surge in the Northern East China Sea; Remote Sens. 11(24) 3033, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11243033.
Lin N and Chavas D 2012 On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling; J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 117(D9), https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017126.
Luettich R A and Westerink J J 2004 Formulation and numerical implementation of the 2D/3D ADCIRC finite element model version 44. XX; 74p.
Mandal S, Sil S and Gangopadhyay A 2020 Tide-current-eddy interaction: A seasonal study using high frequency radar observations along the western Bay of Bengal near 16°N; Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 232 106523, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2019.106523.
Mandal S, Sil S, Shee A and Venkatesan R 2018 Upper Ocean and subsurface variability in the Bay of Bengal during cyclone ROANU: A synergistic view using in-situ and satellite observations; Pure Appl. Geophys. 175 4605–4624, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-018-1932-8.
Mandal S, Sil S, Gangopadhyay A, Murty T and Swain D 2018 On extracting high-frequency tidal variability from HF radar data in the northwestern Bay of Bengal; J. Oper. Oceanogr. 11(2) 65–81, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2018.1479571.
Mattocks C and Forbes C 2008 A real-time, event-triggered storm surge forecasting system for the state of North Carolina; Ocean Model. 25(3–4) 95–119, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.06.008.
Mohapatra M, Nayak D P and Bandyopadhyay B K 2012 Evaluation of cone of uncertainty in tropical cyclone track forecast over North Indian Ocean issued by India Meteorological Department; Trop. Cyclone Res. Rev. 1(3) 331–339, https://doi.org/10.6057/2012TCRR03.02.
Muis S, Verlaan M, Winsemius H, Aerts J and Ward P 2016 A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels; Nat. Commun. 7(1) 1–2, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11969.
Murty P L, Bhaskaran P K, Gayathri R, Sahoo B, Kumar T S and Subba Reddy B 2016 Numerical study of coastal hydrodynamics using a coupled model for Hudhud cyclone in the Bay of Bengal; Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 183 13–27, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2016.10.013.
Murty P L, Sandhya K G, Bhaskaran P K, Jose F, Gayathri R, Nair T B, Kumar T S and Shenoi S S 2014 A coupled hydrodynamic modeling system for PHAILIN cyclone in the Bay of Bengal; Coast. Eng. 93 71–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2014.08.006.
Murty T S and Henry R F 1983 Tides in the Bay of Bengal; J. Geophys. Res. Oceans. 88(C10) 6069–6076, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC088iC10p06069.
Musinguzi A, Akbar M K, Fleming J G and Hargrove S K 2019 Understanding hurricane storm surge generation and propagation using a forecasting model, forecast advisories and best track in a wind model, and observed data – Case study Hurricane Rita; J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 7(3) 77, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse7030077.
NOAA National Geophysical Data Center 2006 2-minute Gridded Global Relief Data (ETOPO2) v2; NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, https://doi.org/10.7289/V5J1012Q.
Pandey S and Rao A D 2018 An improved cyclonic wind distribution for computation of storm surges; Nat. Hazards 92(1) 93–112, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3193-3.
Pandey S and Rao A D 2019 Impact of approach angle of an impinging cyclone on generation of storm surges and its interaction with tides and wind waves; J. Geophys. Res. Oceans 124(11) 7643–7660, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015433.
Peng M S and Reynolds C A 2006 Sensitivity of tropical cyclone forecasts as revealed by singular vectors; J. Atmos. Sci. 63(10) 2508–2528, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3777.1.
Peng M S, Ridout J A and Hogan T F 2004 Recent modifications of the Emanuel convective scheme in the Navy operational global atmospheric prediction system; Mon. Weather Rev. 132(5) 1254–1268.
Poulose J, Rao A D and Bhaskaran P K 2018 Role of continental shelf on non-linear interaction of storm surges, tides and wind waves: An idealized study representing the west coast of India; Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 207 457–470, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2017.06.007.
Powell M D, Vickery P J and Reinhold T A 2003 Reduced drag coefficient for high wind speeds in tropical cyclones; Nature 422(6929) 279–283, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01481.
Qiao W, Song J, He H and Li F 2019 Application of different wind field models and wave boundary layer model to typhoon waves numerical simulation in WAVEWATCH III model; Tellus A 71(1) 1657552, https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2019.1657552.
Rao A D, Upadhaya P, Pandey S and Poulose J 2020 Simulation of extreme water levels in response to tropical cyclones along the Indian coast: A climate change perspective; Nat. Hazards 100(1) 151–172, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-019-03804-z.
Sahoo B and Bhaskaran P K 2015 Synthesis of tropical cyclone tracks in a risk evaluation perspective for the east coast of India; In: International Conference on Water Resources Coastal and Ocean Engineering, (ICWRCOE) 15 389–396, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aqpro.2015.02.052.
Sahoo B and Bhaskaran P K 2019 Prediction of storm surge and inundation using climatological datasets for the Indian coast using soft computing techniques; Soft. Comput. 23(23) 12,363–12,383, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-019-03775-0.
Shankar C G and Behera M R 2021 Numerical analysis on the effect of wave boundary condition in storm wave and surge modeling for a tropical cyclonic condition; Ocean Eng. 220 108371, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.108371.
Shen J, Gong W and Wang H V 2006 Water level response to 1999 Hurricane Floyd in the Chesapeake Bay; Cont. Shelf Res. 26(19) 2484–2502, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2006.07.021.
Sindhu B and Unnikrishnan A S 2013 Characteristics of tides in the Bay of Bengal; Mar. Geod. 36(4) 377–407, https://doi.org/10.1080/01490419.2013.781088.
Tory K J, Dare R A, Davidson N E, McBride J L and Chand S S 2013 The importance of low-deformation vorticity in tropical cyclone formation; Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13(4) 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2115-2013.
Venkatesan R, Shamji V R, Latha G, Mathew S, Rao R R, Muthiah A and Atmanand M A 2013 In-situ ocean subsurface time-series measurements from OMNI buoy network in the Bay of Bengal; Curr. Sci. 10 1166–1177, https://www.jstor.org/stable/24092396.
Wang X, Yao C, Gao G, Jiang H, Xu D, Chen G and Zhang Z 2020 Simulating tropical cyclone waves in the East China Sea with an event-based, parametric-adjusted model; J. Oceanogr. 76(6) 439–457, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-020-00555-5.
Willoughby H E, Darling R W R and Rahn M E 2006 Parametric representation of the primary hurricane vortex. Part II: A new family of sectionally continuous profiles; Mon. Weather Rev. 134 1102–1120, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3106.1.
Willoughby H E and Rahn M E 2004 Parametric representation of the primary hurricane vortex. Part I: Observations and evaluation of the Holland (1980) model; Mon. Weather Rev. 132(12) 3033–3048. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR2831.1.
Zhang D L and Chen H 2012 Importance of the upper‐level warm core in the rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone; Geophys. Res. Lett. 39(2), https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050578.
Zheng J H, Wang J C, Zhou C Y, Zhao H J and Sang S 2017 Numerical simulation of typhoon-induced storm surge along Jiangsu coast, Part II: Calculation of storm surge; Water Sci. Eng. 10(1) 8–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2017.03.011.
Zhong W, Lu H C and Zhang D L 2010 Mesoscale barotropic instability of vortex Rossby waves in tropical cyclones; Adv. Atmos. Sci. 27(2) 243–252, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-8183-7.
Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the financial assistance from the Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), Government of India (CRG/2019/005842). They thank INCOIS and NIOT, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) for providing the tide gauge and deep water buoy datasets free of cost. The authors thank the Editor and reviewers for their suggestions to improve the quality of the work. Finally, the Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar is acknowledged for providing financial and infrastructural support.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
VGS performed all analyses and wrote the initial manuscript. SM contributed to the methodology, interpretation, and editing of the manuscript. SS supervised the entire work. All authors VGS, SM, and SS have contributed to the discussions and writing the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Additional information
Communicated by C Gnanaseelan
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Shashank, V.G., Mandal, S. & Sil, S. Impact of varying landfall time and cyclone intensity on storm surges in the Bay of Bengal using ADCIRC model. J Earth Syst Sci 130, 194 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-021-01695-y
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-021-01695-y