Abstract
Surface air temperature (SAT) is a key meteorological parameter. Modelling and forecasting of the SAT has vital importance to understand the ecological and agricultural changes. We utilized all India monthly mean SAT, which covers a time span of 1951–2016. We used structural time series (STS) analysis to model and forecast the monthly mean SAT. Forecast during 2006–2016 well matched with the observational data. Further, the forecast of monthly mean surface air temperature patterns for 2017–2019 shows a good agreement with climatological behaviour. Note that we observed an increasing trend 0.0009°C per year in monthly mean surface air. Further, we noticed slight chance of rise in temperature about 0.1°C specially for the months of April, May and December in the years 2017–2019.
Highlights
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An increasing trend of 0.0009oC per year is evident in the monthly mean surface air.
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Raise in temperature of 0.1oC is evident during April, May and December.
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Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for providing the monthly mean temperature data through Open Government Data (OGD) Platform, India. The authors are thankful for the worthwhile comments of the reviewers, which led to definite improvement in the paper.
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KVNM proposed the paper, produced most of the material and wrote the manuscript. RS and KVK helped in formulating the part of methodology and data analysis. GKK helped to formulate some of part of the methodology and to bring the scientific interpretation of the results. All authors discussed the results and reviewed the writing.
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Communicated by Kavirajan Rajendran
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Narasimha Murthy, K.V., Saravana, R., Kishore Kumar, G. et al. Modelling and forecasting for monthly surface air temperature patterns in India, 1951–2016: Structural time series approach. J Earth Syst Sci 130, 21 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-01521-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-01521-x