Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Peshawar District, Pakistan

  • Published:
Journal of Earth System Science Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The seismic provisions for the Building Code of Pakistan were revised after the 2005 Kashmir earthquake and these have resulted in the introduction of a macrozonation ground motion hazard map in the seismic provisions. The macrozonation map proposes a peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the return period of 475 yr for Pakistan for flat rock sites. After the macrozonation, the next step is to develop the surface ground motion assessment studies for the cities, districts and tehsils of Pakistan. In this study, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) approach is used for the Peshawar District. The PSHA, consistent with the classical Cornell approach, is carried out to obtain the seismic hazard curves and uniform hazard spectra of PGA values for the return periods of 150, 475, 975 and 2475 yr at a grid spacing of \(0.1{^{\circ }}\times 0.1{^{\circ }}\). The PGA for Peshawar at 150, 475, 975 and 2475 yr return period is estimated as 0.23, 0.34, 0.39 and 0.45g, respectively, for rock flat outcrop site conditions. The surface ground motion maps proposed in this study incorporate the local soil effects using amplification factors based on shear wave velocity obtained as a proxy to the topographic slope. The resultant ground surface hazard assessment proposes the PGA value of 0.63g for the return period of 475 yr and 0.89g for the return period of 2475 yr. The maps developed in the current study are important inputs for the structural designing, risk assessment and land use planning of the Peshawar District.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abrahamson N A and Silva W J 2008 Summary of the Abrahamson and Silva NGA ground motion relations; Earthq. Spectra 24 67–97.

    Google Scholar 

  • Akkar S and Bommer J J 2007 Prediction of elastic displacement response spectra in Europe and the Middle East; Earthq. Eng. Struc. Dyn. 36 1275–1301.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Akkar S and Bommer J J 2010 Empirical equations for the prediction of PGA, PGV, and spectral accelerations in Europe, the Mediterranean region, and the Middle East; Seismol. Res. Lett. 81(2) 195–206.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ambraseys N and Bilham R 2003 Earthquakes and associated deformation in northern Baluchistan 1892–2001; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 93(4) 1573–1605.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ambraseys N and Bilham R 2009 The tectonic setting of Bamiyan and seismicity in and near Afghanistan for the past twelve centuries; In: The destruction of the giant Buddha statues in Bamiyan, central Afghanistan, UNESCO’s emergency activities for the recovering and rehabilitation of cliff and niches,UNESCO Special Publication (ed.) Margottini C 158 67–94, ISBN 978-448-0375-5.

  • Ambraseys N N and Bommer J 1990 Uniform magnitude re-valuation for the strong-motion database of Europe and adjacent areas; Europ. Earthq. Eng. 4 3–16.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anbazhagan P 2013 Method for seismic microzonation with geotechnical aspects; Disas. Adv. 6(4) 66–86.

    Google Scholar 

  • Apel E, Burgmann R and Nagarajan B 2006 Geodetically constrained Indian plate motion and implications for plate boundary deformation; Eos, Trans. Am. Geophys. Union 85(52) T51B–1524, Fall meeting supplement.

  • BCP 2007 Building code of Pakistan seismic provision; In: Ministry of Housing and Works, Islamabad, Pakistan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bhatia S C, Kumar M R and Gupta H K 1999 A probabilistic seismic hazard map of India and adjoining regions; Ann. Geophys. 42 1153–1164.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bilham R 1998 Slip parameters for the Rann of Kachchh, India, 16 June 1819, earthquake, quantified from contemporary accounts; In: Coastal tectonics (eds) Stewart I S and Vita-Finzi C, Geol. Soc. London 146 295–318.

  • Bilham R and Lodhi L 2010 Door Knockers of Mansurah: Strong shaking in a region of low perceived seismic risk, Sindh, Pakistan; Geol. Soc. Am. 471 29–37.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bilham R, Lodhi S, Hough S, Bukhary S, Khan A M and Rafeeqi S F A 2007 Seismic Hazard in Karachi, Pakistan: Uncertain past, uncertain future; Seismol. Res. Lett. 78(6).

  • Boore D M and Atkinson G M 2008 Ground motion prediction equations for the average horizontal component of PGA, PGV, and 5% damped PSA at spectral periods between 0.01 s and 10.0 s; Earthq. Spectra. 24 99–138.

    Google Scholar 

  • Boore D M, Joyner W B and Fumal T E 1997 Equations for estimating horizontal response spectra and peak acceleration from western north American earthquakes: A summary of recent work; Seismol. Res. Lett. 68 128–153.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Borcherdt R D 1994 Estimates of site-dependent response spectra for design (methodology and justification); Earthq. Spectra 10(4) 617–653.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burbank D W and Raynolds R G H 1988 Stratigraphic keys to the timing of thrusting in terrestrial forland basins: Applications to the Northwestern Himalaya; In: News perspectives in basin analysis (eds) Kleinsphen J L and Paola C, Springer-Verlag, New York, pp. 331–351.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Burbank W D and Tahirkhali R A 1985 The magneto stratigraphy, fission track dating and stratific evolution of the Peshawar Intra mountain Basin, Northern Pakistan; Geol. Soc. Am. Bull. 96 539–552.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burg J-P 2011 The Asia–Kohistan–India collision, review and discussion; In: Arc–continent collision: The making of an orogen, frontiers in earth sciences (eds) Brown D and Ryan P D, Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 279–309.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Campbell K W and Bozorgnia Y 2008 NGA ground motion model for the geometric mean horizontal component of PGA, PGV, PGD and 5% damped linear elastic response spectra for periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s; Earthq. Spectra 24 139–171.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Castellaro S and Mulargia F 2009 V\(_{\rm S30}\) Estimates Using Constrained H/V Measurements; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99(2A) 761–773.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen Z, Burchfiel B C, Liu Y, King R W, Royden L H, Tang W, Wang E, Zhao J and Zhang W 2000 GPS measurement from eastern Tibet and their implications for India/Eurasia intercontinental deformation; J. Geophys. Res. 105 215–227.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiou B and Youngs R R 2008 An NGA model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra; Earthq. Spectra. 24 173–215.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cornell C A 1968 Engineering seismic risk analysis; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58(5) 1583–1606.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cornell C A and Vanmarcke E H 1969 The major influences on seismic risk; In: Proc. Fourth World Conferences on Earthquake Engineering, Santiago, Chile, A(1), pp. 69–93.

  • DiPietro J A and Pogue K R 2004 Tectonostratigraphic subdivisions of the Himalaya: A view from the west; Tectonics 23.

  • Earle P S, Wald D J, Allen T I, Jaiswal K S, Porter K A and Hearne M G 2008 Rapid exposure and loss estimates for the May 12, 2008 mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake provided by the U.S. geological survey’s PAGER system; In: The 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering Beijing, China.

  • Gansser A 1964 Geology of the Himalayas; Inter-Science Publication, London.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gardner J K and Knopoff L 1974 Is the sequence of earthquakes in Southern California, with aftershocks removed, Poissonian?; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 64(5) 1363–1367.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gutenberg B and Richter C F 1944 Frequency of earthquakes in California; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 4 185–188.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hartzell S, Carver D and Williams R A 2001 Site response, shallow shear-wave velocity, and damage in Los Gatos, California, from the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 91(3) 468–478.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hashash Y M, Kim B, Olson S M and Ahmad I 2012 Seismic hazard analysis using discrete faults in northwestern Pakistan. Part I: Methodology and evaluation; J. Earthq. Eng. 16(7) 963–994.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heidarzadeh M, Pirooa M D, Zaker N H, Yalciner A C, Mokhtari M and Esmaeily A 2008 Historical tsunami in the Makran subduction zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling; Ocean Eng. 35 774–786.

  • Idriss I M 2008 An NGA empirical model for estimating the horizontal spectral values generated by shallow crustal earthquakes; Earthq. Spectra 24(S1) 217–242.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Joyner W B and Boore D M 1993 Methods for regression analysis of strong-motion data; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 83 469–487.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kazmi A H and Jan M Q 1997 Geology and tectonics of Pakistan; Graphic Publishers, Karachi, Pakistan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Khan S and Khan M A 2016 Mapping sediment thickness of the Islamabad city using empirical relationships: Implications for seismic hazards assessment; J. Earth Syst. Sci. 125(3) 623–644, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-016-0675-0.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khan M A, Aslam M, Hussain A, Ashraf M and Afridi A G K 2006 Geological map of North West Frontier Province, Pakistan (Colored, Scale 1:1,000,000); Geological Survey of Pakistan (Map Series).

  • Khan M A, Javed M W and Sayab M 2011 Fault map and associated database of fault parameters for Pakistan; WP-1 Interim Report, Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) International Project.

  • Kramer S L 1996 Geotechnical earthquake engineering, Prentice Hall, New Jersey, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • Martin S and Szeliga W 2010 A catalog of felt intensity data for 570 earthquakes in India from 1636–2009; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 100(2) 562–569.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • McGuire R K 1976 FORTRAN Computer program for seismic risk analysis, US Geological Survey, open file report, pp. 76–67.

  • MonaLisa, Khawaja A A and Jan M Q 2007 Seismic hazard assessment of NW Himalayan thrust belt using probabilistic approach; J. Earthq. Eng. 11 257–301.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Naseer A, Khan A N, Hussain Z and Ali Q 2010 Observed seismic behavior of buildings in Northern Pakistan during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake; Earthq. Spectra 26(2) 425–449.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NEHRP 1997 National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) recommended provisions for seismic regulations for new building and other structures; Part-1: Provisions, building Seismic Safety Council, Washington, DC, USA.

    Google Scholar 

  • NORSAR and PMD 2006 Seismic Hazard analysis for the cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi; Pakistan Meteorological Department, 47p.

  • Oldham T 1883 A catalog of Indian earthquakes; Geol. Surv. India Memoir 19 163–215.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ordaz M, Faccioli E, Martinelli F, Aguilar A, Arboleda J, Meletti C and D’Amico V 2015 CRISIS2015–Ver. 3.2: Program for computing seismic hazard; Instituto de Ingenieria, UNAM, Mexico.

  • PMD and NORSAR 2007 Seismic Hazard Analysis and Zonation for Pakistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan Meteorological Department, 153p.

    Google Scholar 

  • Quittmeyer R L, Farah A and Jacob K H 1979 The seismicity of Pakistan and its relation to surface faults; In: Geodynamics of Pakistan (eds) Farah A and DeJong K A, Geological Survey of Pakistan, Pakistan, pp. 271–284.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rafi Z, Lindholm C, Bungum H, Laghari H and Ahmed N 2012 Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and zonation of Pakistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir; Nat. Hazards 61 1317–1354.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saeed Z and Warnitchai P 2012 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Pakistan; In: 15th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Bangkok, Thailand.

  • Scordilis E M 2006 Empirical global relations converting \({M}_{{\rm s}}\) and \({m}_{{\rm b}}\) to moment magnitude; J. Seismol. 10(2) 225–236.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Searle M P, Khan M A, Fraser J E, Gough S J and Jan M Q 1999 The tectonic evolution of Kohistan–Karakoram collision belt along the Kohistan Highway transect, North Pakistan; Tectonics 18(6) 929–949.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaltegger U, Zeilionger G, Frank M and Burg J-P 2002 Multiple Mantle sources during Island arc magnetism U–Pb and Hf isotopic evidence from the Kohistan arc complex Pakistan; Terra Nova 44(6) 461–468.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shen Z K, Zhao C, Yin A, Li Y, Jackson D, Fang P and Dong D 2000 Contemporary crustal deformation in East Asia constrained by Global Positioning System measurement; J. Geophy. Res. 105 572–573.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tahirkheli R A 1982 Geology of the Himalaya, Karakorum, and Hindu Kush in Pakistan; Univ. Peshawar Geol. Bull. 15 51.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tahirkheli R A and Jan M Q 1979 A preliminary geological map of Kohistan and adjoining areas, N. Pakistan; Univ. Peshawar Geol. Bull. 11 187.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tinti S and Mulargia F 1985 Completeness analysis of a seismic catalog; Ann. Geophys. 3(3) 407–414.

    Google Scholar 

  • Trifunac M D 1989 Threshold magnitudes which cause ground motion exceeding the values expected during next 50 yr in a metropolitan area; Geofizika 6 1–12.

    Google Scholar 

  • Turnbull M L 2000 A discussion of the felt reports resulting from the Bundaberg earthquake, May 29 1997; In: Bundaberg: A regional perspective, Central Queensland University, Rockhampton, Qld, Centre for Social Science Research (eds) Neuenfeldt et al., pp. 63–78.

  • Wald D J and Allen T I 2007 Topographic slope as a proxy for seismic site conditions and amplification; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 97(5) 1379–1395.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Waseem M, Spacone E and Lai C G 2018 Seismic hazard assessment of northern Pakistan; Nat. Hazards 90(2) 563–590.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Weichert D H 1980 Estimation of the earthquake recurrence parameters for unequal observation periods for different magnitudes; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 70 1337–1346.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wills C J and Clahan K B 2006 Developing a map of geologically defined site-condition categories for California; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 96(4A) 1483–1501.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wills C J and Silva W 1998 Shear wave velocity characteristics of geologic units in California; Earthq. Spectra. 14(3) 533–566.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wills C J, Petersen M, Bryant W A, Reichle M, Saucedo G J, Tan S, Taylor G and Treiman J 2000 A site-conditions map for California based on geology and shear-wave velocity; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90(6B) 187–208.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yagci B and Ansal A 2009 Microzonation study in Balikesir; Teknik Dergi 20(1) 1313–1336.

    Google Scholar 

  • Yong A, Hough S E, Abrams M J, Cox H M, Wills C J and Simila G W 2008 Site characterization using integrated imaging analysis methods on satellite data of the Islamabad, Pakistan, region; Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 98(6) 2679–2693.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang P Z, Yang Z-X, Gupta H K, Bhatia S C and Shedlock K M 1999 Global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) in continent Asia; Annali di Geofisica 42(6) 1167–1190.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This study is part of MS thesis at the National Centre of Excellence in Geology (NCEG), University of Peshawar. The instrumentation used in this study and all logistic support for the fieldwork was provided by the NCEG, which is gratefully acknowledged.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Centre of Excellence in Geology, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, KP, 25130, Pakistan

    Ahmad Hammad Khaliq, Muhammad Waseem, Sarfraz Khan & Waqas Ahmed

  2. University of Peshawar, Peshawar, KP, 25130, Pakistan

    Muhammad Asif Khan

Authors
  1. Ahmad Hammad Khaliq
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Muhammad Waseem
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Sarfraz Khan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Waqas Ahmed
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Muhammad Asif Khan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sarfraz Khan.

Additional information

Corresponding editor: N V Chalapathi Rao

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Khaliq, A.H., Waseem, M., Khan, S. et al. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Peshawar District, Pakistan. J Earth Syst Sci 128, 6 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-018-1028-y

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-018-1028-y

Keywords

Search

Navigation