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Projection of extreme precipitation in the context of climate change in Huang-Huai-Hai region, China

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Abstract

Based on the national precipitation dataset (0.5∘×0.5∘) 1961–2011, published by the National Meteorological Information Center of China and the five Global Climate Models provided by ISI-MIP, annual maximum precipitation for 1 day, 3 days and 7 days could be calculated. Extreme precipitation was fitted via Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to explore the changes of extreme precipitation with the return period of 20 years and 50 years during 1961–2000 and 2001–2050. Based on this, extreme precipitation projection in Huang-Huai-Hai region was done. The results showed that the five Global Climate Models could simulate the statistical features of extreme precipitation quite well, in which IPSL-CM5A-LR has the highest precision. Simulation of IPSL-CM5A-LR indicates that precipitation with the return period of 20 years and 50 years in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, middle and lower reaches of Huaihe River and plain area of the southern Haihe River will increase considerably in the future. Extreme precipitation in some of the places will even increase by more than 30%, which means that these places will face larger flood risk and their capacity to respond to flood disasters should be improved.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Science and Technology Support Program Project (2012BAC19B03,2013BAC10B01); the General Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51279207); research subject of State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin (2015ZY02); National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41401045); Outstanding Youth Science Foundation of China (51522907).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, Water Resources Research Department, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China

    JUN YIN, DENGHUA YAN, ZHIYONG YANG & ZHE YUAN

  2. General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing, 100120, China

    YONG YUAN

  3. Division of International Cooperation, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing, 100038, China

    CHENG ZHANG

Authors
  1. JUN YIN
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  2. DENGHUA YAN
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  3. ZHIYONG YANG
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  4. ZHE YUAN
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  5. YONG YUAN
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  6. CHENG ZHANG
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Correspondence to DENGHUA YAN.

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YIN, J., YAN, D., YANG, Z. et al. Projection of extreme precipitation in the context of climate change in Huang-Huai-Hai region, China. J Earth Syst Sci 125, 417–429 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-016-0664-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-016-0664-3

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