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Simulation of Indian summer monsoon using the Japan Meteorological Agency’s seasonal ensemble prediction system

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Abstract

The performance of a dynamical seasonal forecast system is evaluated for the prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region during June–September (JJAS) by using hindcast of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seasonal ensemble prediction system (EPS) model, based on five ensembles of March, April and May initial states for a period of 32 years (1979–2010).

The hindcast climatology during JJAS simulates the mean monsoon circulation at lower and upper tropospheres very well in JMA model using March, April and May ensembles with a more realistic simulation of Webster and Yang’s broad scale monsoon circulation index. The JMA hindcast climatology during JJAS simulates the rainfall maxima over the west-coast of India and the head Bay of Bengal reasonably well, although, the latter is slightly shifted southwestward. Associated with better forecast skills of El Nino in the JMA model, the interannual variability of All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) during the 32-year period has also been very well simulated with a high significant (99% level) correlation in April ensemble followed by that of March and May ensembles. Thus, the present analysis indicates that the JMA seasonal forecast model can prove to be a useful tool for the dynamical seasonal forecast of AISMR.

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Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) for providing the Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) hindcast datasets for a period of 32 years from 1979 to 2010 for use in the present study. Authors are thankful to the Additional Director General of Meteorology (Research), ADGM (R), India Meteorological Department, Pune for the encouragement and facilities provided to carry out this study. Thanks are also due to the anonymous reviewers for their very useful comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. India Meteorological Department, Pune, 411 005, India.

    Kailas Sonawane, O P Sreejith, D R Pattanaik, Mahendra Benke & D S Pai

  2. Interdisciplinary Programme in Climate Studies, Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai, 400 076, India.

    Nitin Patil

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  1. Kailas Sonawane
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  2. O P Sreejith
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  3. D R Pattanaik
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Correspondence to Kailas Sonawane.

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Sonawane, K., Sreejith, O.P., Pattanaik, D.R. et al. Simulation of Indian summer monsoon using the Japan Meteorological Agency’s seasonal ensemble prediction system. J Earth Syst Sci 124, 321–333 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0537-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0537-1

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